Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar and South African rand fall as gold prices decline along with other precious metals. Investors are taking profits following a strong run in gold prices. Optimism over talks aimed at ending the Ukraine-Russia war have also reduced demand for gold. Still, Russia continues to attack Ukraine infrastructure. A troy ounce of silver is worth more than a barrel of oil in futures markets. US stocks were slightly lower. Crude oil is higher. USD is higher. China is planning military war games around Taiwan after US announced arms deal with Taiwan.
Tuesday CFTC commit of traders and Wednesday weekly export sales should allow USDA to catch up with delayed data.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.68. Trade est US 25/26 soybean carryout closer to 360 mil bu vs USDA 290 due to lower exports. Some look for USDA to increase US 2025 soybean yield slightly in January due to record pod count. Brazil and parts of north Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. South Argentina is dry. Russia attacked Ukraine sunoil industry trying to increase value of Russia sunoil.
CORN
CH is near 4.47. CH may be seeing year end profit taking near key resistance. Trade est US 25/26 corn carryout closer to 2,325 mil bu vs USDA 2,029 due to lower domestic use. Some look for USDA to drop US 2025 corn yield 2 bpa in January. Same group feels USDA needs to drop the yield 4 bpa to push prices above resistance. Trade est US Dec 1 corn stocks at 13,140 mil bu vs 12,075 ly. Sep-Nov exports were record 836 mil bu vs 517 ly. Feed and residual 2,500 mil bu vs 2,357 ly.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.16. WH may be in a 4.70-5.40 range. KWH is near 5.29. MWH is near 5.77. Wheat futures and most commodities are seeing a yearend round of profit taking. US south plains temps are warmer than normal and could make crop vulnerable to cold spell. Trade est US Dec 1 wheat stocks at 1,649 mil bu vs 1,573 ly. Sep-Nov exports were record 247 mil bu vs 193 ly.
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