Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Higher trade across the Ag space overnight as prices recover from last week’s lower trade. Markets seem to be showing little reaction to the military operation in Venezuela over the weekend where US forces ousted leader Nicolas Maduro. Crude oil is up $.35 a barrel. The US $$$ is moderately higher jumping out to a 3 week high. US stock indices are steady to up .60%. Weather in Brazil remains favorable for crop development with heavy rains over central growing areas this weekend with additional showers this week. Dryness still a concern for Southern Argentina. Above normal temperatures for the Central US this week before cooler readings next weekend. Precipitation to favor the central and ECB with little moisture for the plains and WCB. Export sales thru Dec. 25th at 7:30 CST with CFTC COT data after the close updating traders positioning as of Dec. 30th.
SOYBEANS
Mch-26 beans clawed back above $10.50 looking to end a run of 5 consecutive lower closes. Inside trade for Mch-26 meal while oil holding in $.48-$.50 range. Deliveries against Jan-26 soybean slipped to 401 contracts, oil dropped to zero while 20 deliveries against Jan-26 meal. Export sales are expected to fall between 700-1,800k tons (26-66 mil. bu.) of beans, 150-500k tons of meal and 0-20k tons of oil. Speculative traders on Fri. sold 8k contracts of beans, 5.5k meal while buying 4k oil. We’ve got MM’s still long 92k beans while short 16k meal and 65k oil. Census crush in Nov-25 at 221 mil. bu. was at the low end of expectations. Cumulative crush in Q1 of 25/26 MY at 663 mil. is up 8.3% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 4.5%. Bean oil stocks surged 21% from Oct-25 to 2.164 bil. lbs, well above expectations and the highest since April-24.
CORN
Mch-26 futures held support above its Dec-25 low at $4.35 ½ before bouncing to $4.40. Export sales are expected to fall between 700-1,500k tons (28-60 mil. bu.) Speculative traders sold 8k contracts on Fri. extending their short position to roughly 26k contracts. Corn used for ethanol slipped to 472 mil. bu. in Nov-25, in line with expectations. In Q1 of the 25/26 MY usage has reached 1.382 bil. bu. matching the YA, while the USDA forecast is for a 3% increase.
WHEAT
Prices are $.01-$.02 higher across the 3 classes. Exports are expected to fall between 100-500k mt (4-18 mil. bu.) Speculative traders sold 1k contracts of CGO futures on Fri. stretching their short position out to 96k contracts. MA resistance for Mch-26 KC comes in a $5.28. New contract low on Friday for Mch-26 CGO however held above $5.00 level for now.
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