Written Commentary
US / Iran negotiations stand still and attempted gun attack on US administration in view, on quiet day for data and events.
- Week ahead: Array of major economy Advance GDP and inflation indicators vie with G7 central bank policy meetings and deluge of US and worldwide corporate earnings
- Al Jazeera English discussion on Energy Outlook watch video here
PLEASE NOTE: there will be no further updates due to annual leave.
EVENTS PREVIEW
The attempted gun attack on the US president and senior administration officials at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner vies with the seeming impasse in US/Iran negotiations to end the war, as a busy week awaits for major central bank meetings – Fed, BoJ, ECB, BoE, Bank of Canada and Brazil BCB COPOM – and a bumper week for corporate earnings worldwide, including 178 S&P 500 companies (for global highlights see final paragraph of commentary). The statistical schedule has advance Q1 GDP readings from the US, Eurozone, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, though there will be rather more interest (concern) about how badly the broad supply chain disruptions will impact Q2 growth. As such the run of inflation reports from the US (PCE deflators), Eurozone, Japan, Australia and Brazil may prove to be rather more market sensitive. Other points of interest will be US Consumer Confidence, Goods Trade Balance, Durable Goods Orders, Auto Sales and Manufacturing ISM. Elsewhere, the focus will be on China’s NBS PMIs and RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, German Unemployment, Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales. In the commodity and energy space, earnings from the likes of Exxon Mobil, Chevron, BP, TotalEnergies, Sinopec, Cnooc, Petrochina, Vale, Gerdau and Ganfeng Lithium, and Q1 production reports from Glencore and Anglo American accompany the EU’s MARS Crop Bulletin. The week ending May Day / Labour Day holiday in much of the world will make for a shortened trading week.
For all of the White House comments talking of an end to the war with Iran over the weekend, the lack of any further talks in Islamabad at the weekend leave conflict resolution in limbo. While neither side appear to be in any immediate mood to resume military conflict, the threat remains real. More significant in economic terms is that Persian Gulf oil production has gone from ca. 27.0 mln barrels per day pre-conflict to 14.3 Mln bpd, with total lost output at a minimum of 500 Mln barrels and seemingly rapidly heading to 1.0 Bln, rendering the IEA SPR release of 400 Mln little more than a drop in the ocean, with floating oil storage also rapidly depleting. The lost output of oil products (above all diesel, LPG and aviation fuel), gas, nitrogen and sulfur will have a more profound and deeper impact, and demand destruction looks to be inevitable. Guesstimating or modelling how long this will last remains a thankless task, but financial markets looks to be poorly priced for this increasingly likely adverse outcome.
Central banks
Fed: In what looks to be Powell’s last FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, the Fed is seen holding rates, and remain cautious on the rate outlook, stress in that it stands ready to act, probably highlighting underlying resilience in recent data, but noting an array of potential headwinds. As this is not a forecast update meeting, the focus will be on the likely nuanced changes to its statement, and the press conference will also see some questions about what Powell plans to do once he steps down as Chair, but his term as a Fed governor runs until 31 January 2028.
ECB: Lagarde & Co have stressed that they are not going to rush into a rate hike at this meeting, the question is how strongly will they signal the chance of a rate hike in June, with April CPI data conveniently scheduled to be released just before the rate decision and press conference, as well as the latest quarterly bank lending survey, the latter likely some modest further tightening in lending conditions, but overall still neutral.
BoJ: The BoJ is also seen on hold, and continue to signal that further rate hikes are likely. The challenge for Ueda is how to navigate a high wire act on rate trajectory signalling, given that it has tacitly admitted that it is behind the curve by noting real interest remain low, as well as highlighting upside inflation risks and downside risks to growth. In contrast to the Fed and ECB, the BoJ will update its economic forecasts, and is likely to tweak its inflation forecasts higher. Markets will also focus on the extent of dissenting votes on the rate decision
BoE: MPC members have been keen to stress that they need to take time to evaluate the array of risk to inflation, growth and an unemployment, with the hawkish leaning Pill saying. “For me, on balance, I think we still have some restriction. But I think we do have to entertain the possibility that more may be required”; and Governor Bailey: “We’re not going to rush to judgments on those things, because there are a lot of uncertainties around this. It’s really too early to form strong judgments”. Markets are likely to focus on the vote, with at least two hawks expected to vote for a rate hike.
Bank of Canada: The BoC is seen holding rates at 2.25%, and continue to suggest rates are likely to remain steady. It will likely note that the latest CPI data showed that core inflation pressures remain muted, and highlight risks to the growth outlook from the Middle East war and trade tensions with the US, as well as emerging slack in the labour market.
Key data expectations
U.S.A. – Advance Q1 GDP seen at 2.2% SAAR, paced by solid Business Spending, a rebound in government spending as ‘shutdown’ effects are unwound, and a more modest contribution from Personal Consumption (1.5% SAAR vs. prior 1.9%), the advance Goods Trade Balance, Durable Goods Shipments and Business Inventories released ahead of GDP may prompt some forecast tweaks. March PCE deflators are forecast to show headline pressures from energy prices for a 0.7% m/m gain pushing the y/y rate up to 3.5%, and a more modest 0.3% m/m on core raising the y/y rate to a fairly lofty 3.2% from 3.0%. Consumer Confidence is seen dropping to 89.0 from 91.8, with revisions as ever a wild card, and markets set to focus on both the labour differential and consumer appetite for large ticket spending.
Eurozone: CPI is set to see further energy price pressures with a jump of 1.0% m/m to push the y/y rate up to 3.0% from 2.6%, but core CPI is seen easing to 2.2% from 2.3% y/y. Advance Q1 GDP is seen unchanged at 0.2% q/q, that would see the y/y rate slip to just 0.9% from 1.2%. Ahead of these EC Confidence survey indices are forecast to drop modestly, and the ECB inflation expectations surveys to pick up to 2.8% y/y 1-yr and 2.6% 3-yr.
Japan: Tokyo CPI is likely to show upward pressure from energy prices with headline rising 0.3 ppt to 1.7% and ex-Fresh Food up 0.1 ptp to 1.8%, but ‘core core’ slipping to 2.2% y/y. Both Industrial Production and Retail Sales are forecast to post solid gain of 1.1% and 0.6% m/m respectively.
There are 178 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, with a busy run of worldwide corporate earnings highlights as compiled by Bloomberg News likely to include:
AbbVie, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Adani Power, Adidas, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China, Advantest, Aena SME, Aflac, Agnico Eagle Mines, Agricultural Bank of China, Air Products & Chemicals, Airbus, Allstate, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Alphabet, Altria, Amazon, American International Group, American Tower, American Water Works, Ametek, Amgen, Amphenol, Amrize, ANZ Group, Aon, Apple, ArcelorMittal, Arch Capital Group, Ares Management, Arthur J. Gallagher, ASE Technology Holding, Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi Ve Ticaret, Assa Abloy, Astellas Pharma, AstraZeneca, Atlas Copco, Automatic Data Processing, Avic Chengdu Aircraft, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, BBVA, Banco Santander, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, Bank of Jiangsu, Barclays, BASF, Biogen, Bloom Energy, BNP Paribas, Booking, BP, Bristol-Myers Squibb, BYD, Cadence Design Systems, CaixaBank, Cambricon Technologies, Canadian National Railway, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Cardinal Health, Carrier Global, Carvana, Caterpillar, Cboe Global Markets, Celestica, Central Japan Railway, CGN Power, Chevron, China Citic Bank, China Coal Energy, China Construction Bank, China CSSC, China Everbright Bank, China Life Insurance, China Merchants Bank, China National Nuclear Power, China National Uranium, China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech, China Pacific Insurance, China Petroleum & Chemical, China State Construction Engineering, China Yangtze Power, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Cigna, Cincinnati Financial, Coal India, Coca-Cola, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Colgate-Palmolive, ConocoPhillips, Corning, Cosco Shipping, Credit Agricole, CRH, Daiichi Sankyo, Danske Bank, DBS Group, Delta Electronics, Delta Electronics Thailand, Denso, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Boerse, Deutsche Post, Dominion Energy, Dr Ing hc F. Porsche, DSV, DTE Energy, East Japan Railway, EBay, Ecolab, Edison International, Eli Lilly, Elite Material, Emcor Group, Emirates Telecommunications, Entergy, Enterprise Products Partners, Epiroc, Equinix, Erste Group Bank, Estee Lauder, Extra Space Storage, Exxon Mobil, Fair Isaac, FirstEnergy, Fomento Economico Mexicano, Ford Motor, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Ftai Aviation, Fujitsu, Garmin, GE HealthCare Technologies, Geely Automobile, General Dynamics, General Motors, GigaDevice Semiconductor, Gree Electric Appliances of Zhuhai, GSK, Haier Smart Home, Haleon, Hanwha Aerospace, Hanwha Ocean, Hershey, Hilton Worldwide, Hindustan Unilever, Hitachi, Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, Hoya, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower, Hubbell, Iberdrola, Illinois Tool Works, Imperial Oil, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Industrial Bank, ING Groep, Ingersoll Rand, Intercontinental Exchange, Iron Mountain, Itochu, Kimberly-Clark, Kinross Gold, KLA, Komatsu, Kone, Kyocera, L3Harris Technologies, Lasertec, LG Energy Solution, Linde, Lloyds Banking Group, LPL Financial, Luxshare Precision Industry, Martin Marietta Materials, Marubeni, Maruti Suzuki India, MasTec, Mastercard, MediaTek, Mercedes-Benz Group, Merck, Meta Platforms, MetaX Integrated Circuits Shanghai, Microsoft, Midea Group, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi Electric, Mitsui, Mondelez International, Monolithic Power Systems, Montage Technology, Moore Threads Technology, Murata Manufacturing, Nari Technology, Naturgy Energy Group, NatWest Group, Naura Technology Group, NEC, New China Life Insurance, Novartis, Nucor, NXP Semiconductors, O’Reilly Automotive, Old Dominion Freight Line, Oneok, Oriental Land, Otsuka Holdings, Paccar, Parker-Hannifin, People’s Insurance Group of China, PetroChina, Phillips 66, PICC Property & Casualty, Postal Savings Bank of China, PPG Industries, Prysmian, Public Storage, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry, Qualcomm, Quanta Services, Reddit, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Repsol, ResMed, Robinhood Markets, Roblox, Royal Caribbean Cruises, S&P Global, Samsung C&T, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDI, Sandisk, Sany Heavy Industry, Saudi Basic, Saudi Telecom, Seagate Technology, SF Holding, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Shenzhen Inovance Technology, Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics, Sherwin-Williams, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken, Societe Generale, Southern, Spotify Technology, Standard Chartered, Starbucks, Stellantis, Stryker, Sumitomo, Sungrow Power Supply, Swedbank, Sysco, T-Mobile US, TC Energy, TDK, TechnipFMC, Teradyne, Teva Pharmaceutical, Tokyo Electron, TotalEnergies, Toyota Industries, Toyota Tsusho, Tradeweb Markets, Trane Technologies, UBS Group, UltraTech Cement, Unimicron Technology, United Microelectronics, UPS, Universal Music, Vale, Valero Energy, Ventas, Verizon Communications, Vici Properties, Victory Giant Technology Huizhou, Vingroup, Visa, Volkswagen, Vulcan Materials, Wal-Mart de Mexico, Wartsila, Waste Management, WEG, Weichai Power, Welltower, Western Digital, Willis Towers Watson, Wuliangye Yibin, WuXi AppTec, Xcel Energy, XPO, Xylem, Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable Joint Stock, Yum! Brands, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls
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