Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Higher trade across the Ag space this AM ahead of tomorrow’s USDA data release and President Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi later this week in Beijing. Pres. Trump rejected Iran’s counter proposal to the most recent US peace agreement sending global energy prices higher. Markets nerviously await to see if the fragile US/Iran ceasefire holds. WTI June-26 crude oil is up $3.10 a barrel near $98.50. Spot RBOB is up $.09 a gallon while HO is $.06 higher. Heavy rains across the US Gulf coast and parts of central TX over the weekend. Lighter amounts stretched from the SE plains across the Southern Midwest and and ECB. Mostly dry across the WCB and N. Midwest. Rains this week to again favor the Gulf coast with lighter amounts for the central Midwest and ECB. Mostly dry in the mid-south, WCB and N. plains. Above normal temperatures in the WCB will spread across the central midwest by mid to late week. Favorable harvest conditons for much of Argentina this week. In Brazil good rains across the Southern half of MGDS stretched into E. Parana. Rains this week will favor the interior south with lighter amounts across the EC region bringing modest releif from recent heat and dryness. The US $$$ is slightly higher while holding within Friday’s range. US stock indices are mixed and little changed.
Corn:
July-26 and Dec-26 are both $.03 higher at $4.74 ¼ and $4.96 ½ respectively. Money managers bought nearly 80k contracts of corn, pushing their long position to 344k contracts, the largest since Feb-25. Index funds also bought 41k contracts stretching their long position to 442k contracts, the largest since Feb-25. Traders expect little change in old crop ending stocks in next Tues. USDA WASDE report. We look for a 25 mil. bu. cut to 2.102 bil. Look for exports and feed usage to rise 25 mil. each with demand for ethanol down 25 mil. 2026 production is expected to fall nearly 1.1 bil. bu. to 15.935 bil. due to lower acres
Soybeans:
July-26 beans are $.11 ½ higher at $12.19 ½, while Nov-26 is up $.09 at $11.98 ½. July-26 meal is up $4.50 at $324.10 while July-26 oil is 68 points higher at 75.00. Resistance for July is at LW’s high of $12.26 ¼. Nov-26 stretched out to a 3-year high. July crush margins are up $.05 at $3.18 bu. MM’s bought only 3,417 contracts of soybean oil, however it was enough to stretch their record long position to just over 169k. Across the soybean complex MM’s were net buyers of 29.5k contracts pushing their combined long position to a record at nearly 502k contracts. Without any more old crop sales to China, the USDA soybean export forecast at 1.540 bil. bu. is likely too large. The ave guess in the Reuters poll shows old crop ending stocks slipping 5 mil. bu. to 345. New crop production is expected to increase just over 180 mil. bu. to 4.445 bil. with trendline yields holding at 53 bpa. Chinese customs data showed they imported 8.5 mmt in April bringing YTD imports to 25.15 mmt, up 8.5% YOY.
Wheat:
Prices are $.08-$.10 higher. CGO July-26 is up $.10 at $6.29, KC July-26 is $.09 higher at $6.84 ¾, while MIAX July-26 is up $.08 at $6.86 ½. By class production: HRW – 605 mil., SRW – 345 mil. and white – 235 mil.
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