Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.04 higher while spreads were little changed. July-26 closed near the mid-point of LW’s range. The USDA announced flash sales of 128k mt (5 mil. bu.) to S. Korea and 380k mt (15 mil. bu.) to Mexico. Roughly 9 mil. bu. to Mexico was for the 25/26 MY with 6 mil. for 26/27 MY. MM’s bought nearly 80k contracts of corn, pushing their long position to 344k contracts, the largest since Feb-25. Index funds also bought 41k contracts stretching their long position to 442k contracts, the largest since Feb-25.Export inspections at 67 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and above the 60 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 2.251 bil. are up 31% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%.
SOYBEANS
Prices across the complex were mixed with beans up $.03-$.05, meal jumped $4-$6 while oil has backed off 30-75 points. Meal spreads firmed while oil and bean spreads weakened. Resistance for July beans is at LW’s high of $12.26 ¼. Nov-26 stretched out to a 3-year high. July-26 meal traded to a new high for the month while July oil held support above LW’s low at 73.10. July crush margins finished steady at $3.13 bu. with bean oil PV slipping to 53.2%. Higher trade across most of the Ag. space ahead of tomorrow’s USDA data and President Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi later this week in Beijing. Over the weekend Pres. Trump rejected Iran’s counter proposal to the most recent US peace agreement sending global energy prices higher. Markets nerviously wait to see if the fragile US/Iran ceasefire holds which the President described as being on “life support”. MM’s bought only 3,417 contracts of soybean oil, however it was enough to stretch their record long position to just over 169k. Across the soybean complex MM’s were net buyers of nearly 30k contracts pushing their combined long position to a record at 502k contracts. Without additional old crop sales to China, the USDA soybean export forecast at 1.540 bil. bu. is likely too large. The Ave. guess in the Reuters poll shows old crop ending stocks slipping 5 mil. bu. to 345. New crop production is expected to increase just over 180 mil. bu. to 4.445 bil. with trendline yields holding at 53 bpa. Chinese customs data showed they imported 8.5 mmt in April bringing YTD imports to 25.15 mmt, up 8.5% YOY. Export inspections at 24 mil. bu. was at the high end of expectations. In addition, LW’s inspections were revised up by 2 mil. bu. bringing YTD inspections to 1.249 bil. down 23% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 18%. China took just over 12 mil. bu. while Egypt took 4 mil.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.08-$.15 higher with CGO the leader to the upside. CGO July-26 was up $.15 at $6.34, KC July-26 was $.10 ½ higher at $6.86 ¼, while MIAX July-26 was up $.08 ½ at $6.87. Export inspections at 19 mil. bu. were above expectations. Last week’s inspections were revised up 2.5 mil. bu. bringing YTD inspections to 841 mil. bu. up 13% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast up 9%.
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