ADMIS News
COCOA
December Cocoa was higher early Wednesday but inside Tuesday’s range. The market has been in a choppy, sideways pattern for the past several sessions as it weighs threats that dry weather will persist in west Africa due to El Nino with reports of some relief reaching the region. World Weather Inc. said satellite imagery suggests cocoa growing areas in west Africa, including Ivory Coast and Ghana, have received some scattered showers this week and that more is expected next week. The rains are on the light side and more will be needed, but the for the moment this is staving off worries about a long term dry trend developing. However, they added that long term moisture deficits are unlikely to go away. Cumulative arrivals in Ivory Coast for the first two weeks of the 2026/27 marketing year, reached 26,000 metric tons, which may not be a bad start given that last year, the marketing season started in October and arrivals reached 48,000 tons by October 12.
COFFEE
December Coffee was lower early Wednesday and was close to Monday’s two-month lows. In addition to what appears to be a large supply of newly harvested coffee arriving from Brazil, that nation’s 2026/27 crop appears to be starting market of with good weather conditions. World Weather Inc. said Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo received significant rain in the first half of September, which has induced a “full flush” of early season flowering. There is still a risk that a prolonged period of hot and dry weather could prevent (or reduce) pollination, but World Weather, Inc. believes such conditions are not very likely in this year in these areas. Areas farther to the north face a little more at risk because of El Nino conditions. Earlier this week Brazilian government data indicated the nation’s green coffee exports for the first two weeks of September were up 51.5% from the daily average for the entire month of September 2025.
SUGAR
March Sugar was down for the fifth straight session early Wednesday after reaching contract highs last week. The market has been hit with a wave of bullish news recently, and the fund net long position reflects that, but the failure to extend the rally from last week suggests that the market is headed for a consolidation, if not a correction. Last weeks Commitments of Traders report showed the managed money net long at 247,051 contracts, which is the highest in almost four year and is approaching the record 285,488 from 2016, which leaves the market vulnerable to heavy selling. Southern Brazil rainfall will be frequent and significant during the next ten days, which may be good for next season’s cane production but could limit the latter part of the harvest. Crushing data out of Brazil has been sparse recently, but the trade appears to be expecting sugar production to continue to show declines from year ago levels. This week the former head of sugar operations at Wilmer International spoke of the potential for a “super bull” market in sugar this year, citing problems with El Nino, shrinking stocks in India, expected lower production in Thailand, and lower Brazilian output.
COTTON
December Cotton was near unchanged overnight after falling to its lowest level since August 14 on Tuesday. The market put in a contract high two weeks ago, after the weekly crop conditions showed a modest improvement on the week, and another improvement this week has sparked an extension in the decline. This week’s report showed 36% were rated good/excellent versus a five-year average of 44%. World Weather Inc. says there is some potential for showers and thunderstorms later this week and into next week in west Texas, but with 58% of the crop having bolls already open, we are reaching a point where additional rains will not be beneficial.
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