Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.05-$.06 lower, drifting back toward session lows at the close. Spreads were weaker. Dec-26 continues to hold within the range from Fri. Sept. 11th, USDA report day. MM’s bought just over 30k contracts of corn yesterday extending their long position to 440k contracts, which would be a new record high. O.I however, was up less than a thousand contracts. Crop ratings held steady at 57% G/E with overall ratings holding at the season lows and just below the historical average. 92% of the crop is dented, 58% is mature, both above YA and the 5-year Ave. Harvest reached 13% vs. 10% YA and 5-year Ave. of 11%. Hot/dry conditions in the South led to good progress being made. Ratings suggest an average US yield of 178.2 bpa with production at 15.773 bil. bu. down 24 mil. from last week while just below the USDA forecast at 15.80 bil. bu. EU corn imports as of Sept. 20th at 4.47 mmt are up 27% YOY. US Gulf FOB offers have spiked vs. SA prices, perhaps an attempt to shift non-Chinese buyers to Brazil or Argentina in the event China starts loading up on US grain. If China were to purchase US corn it would be purely for political reasons as Dalian prices have fallen to only a $70 per ton premium to US Gulf prices, matching the low from 2025 and the lowest since the spring of 2022.
SOYBEANS
Prices finished mixed with beans down $.01-$.03, meal was up $2 while oil was off 75-95 points. Nov-26 beans continue to hover just below contract highs at $13.35 ¼. Resistance for Oct-26 meal is at $372.90 while support for Oct-26 oil is at last month’s low at 65.70. The Central Midwest is expected to get a break from the recent heavy rains with showers expected to favor the far ECB and Plain states over the next 5 days. Gradual warming this week with temperatures reaching above normal readings by the weekend. Week 2 of the outlook has above normal precipitation across the nation’s midsection. Crush margins backed up another $.03 to $2.37 bu. with meal PV rising to a 7-month high at 52.2%. Yesterday MM’s bought 13k contracts of soybeans, 8.5k meal and 3k bean oil. O.I. was up 3k in beans, while down 8.5k in meal and 7k in oil. Overnight Sinograin auctioned off just over 62% of the 543k tons of soybeans offered. China also announced plans for another auction of 514k tons next Monday. AgRural reports Brazil’s 2026/27 crop is just over 1% planted. US crop ratings held steady at 58% G/E. Composite ratings remain at cycle lows while just above the historical average. 62% of the crop is dropping leaves vs. YA and 5-year Ave. of 58%. Harvest has reached 12% vs. YA and 5-year Ave. of 8%. Updated ratings suggest an average US yield of 52.5 bpa with production at 4.511 bil. bu. down fractionally from last week while below the USDA forecast of 4.535 bil. I’d estimate Chinese purchases of US beans are approaching 14 mmt. The trade remains hopeful that US/China will drop reciprocal tariffs this week following the Trump/Xi summit. EU soybean imports at 2.67 mmt are up 14% YOY. Meal imports at 3.5 mmt are off 20.5%. US soybeans remain competitively priced against Brazilian offers. US shipments to China will start picking up this fall as Brazilian shipments start to tail off.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.09 to $.13 lower. CGO Dec-26 was down $.09 ½ at $7.17 ¼, KC Dec-26 was $.13 ¼ lower at $7.81 ¼, while Dec-26 MIAX was $.10 lower at $7.36 ¼. Russian and Ukrainian forces continue military strikes on port infrastructure and cargo vessels despite Russian leader Putin and Turkey’s Pres. Erdogan recent discussion for a moratorium that would allow the safe passage through the Black Sea. Russia eliminated export duties on grain shipments through the end of 2026. US spring harvest advanced to 96%, matching the YA pace and 5-year Ave. Winter wheat plantings at 17% are below the 19% pace from YA and the 5-year Ave. of 21%. 2% of the crop has emerged. Sources indicate Jordan bought 60k mt of optional origin wheat in today’s 120k mt tender. They reportedly paid $322/mt CF for Nov-26 shipment. EU soft wheat shipments at 6.3 mmt are up 2% YOY. The BAGE is forecasting Argentine 26/27 wheat production at 23.4 mmt. While down 4.4 mmt from YA, it’s still above the USDA est. of 21.5 mmt.
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