ADMIS News
COCOA
December Cocoa was near unchanged early Friday, following a three-day bounce off a three-month low. West African growing regions have seen enough rain to ease El Nino concerns for the moment, but southern Ivory Coast and southwestern Ghana still need rain as recent events have been spotty. World Weather Inc. expects a routine occurrence of showers and thunderstorms in Ivory Coast and Ghana over the next week. Analysts at Rabobank commented that the market has been overly focused on upcoming supply concerns and is not sufficiently accounting for the surplus from the 2025/26 season. ICE cocoa stocks were down 879 bags on Thursday to 3.437 million after reaching their highest level since September 3 on Thursday. Ghana’s farm ministry is expected to announce that it will open its 2026/27 cocoa season on October 1 and also announce the farmgate price at that time. Ghana and Ivory Coast agreed in June to harmonize farmgate prices and season start dates, but Ivory Coast already opened its season on September 1, a month earlier than normal. Ivory Coast started early to prepare for the new reporting requirements for EU deforestation rules, and so far the process is reportedly running smooth. There has not much has news out of Ghana regarding their attempts to meet the requirements. This could cause a backup in supplies as the main crop harvest advances. The deadline is January 1 for large players.
SUGAR
March Sugar was near unchanged early Friday following a three day bounce off the 18-cent level. Ongoing rainfall in Brazil is good for next year’s cane crop but it is pulling down sugar production this season. A survey of 10 analysts published by S&P Global has first-half September sugar production Brazil’s center-south region put expectations at 2.09 million metric tons, down from 46% 3.6 million tons for the same period last year. Total cane crush is expected at 29.8 million tons, down from 46.1 million tons in 2025. Sugar’s share of the crus his expected at 49.85%. Ethanol production is expected to be down 18.7% to 1.89 billion liters from 2.33 billion liters in the same period last year. More rain-related crush delays are expected in the first week of October.
COFFEE
December Coffee was higher early Friday, having found support this week after a 20% decline from the near-contract highs in just four weeks. News of a surge in Brazilian exports in August changed the market’s view after heavy rains in June and early July had slowed harvest. This week, Conab raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2026 coffee production to a record 67.6 million bags, up from a previous forecast of 66.7 million, crediting stronger arabica yields, but that did little to pressure the market on Thursday. Arabica production was increased to 48.2 million bags from previous estimate of 45.8 million. This is up 34.8% from 2025. Robusta production was forecast at 19.4 million bags, up from prior estimate of 20.9 million but down 6.6% from 2025. The 2027 crop is off to a good start after rains induced flowering. A mix of rain and dry weather this week and next is viewed as supportive to the crop.
COTTON
December Cotton was lower early Friday, perhaps off disappointment that the Trump/Xi meeting this week did not produce any new pledge by China to buy US agricultural products. Thursday’s export sale report offered a sharp improvement over recent weeks, but China canceled a modest amount. USDA cotton export sales for the week ending September 17 showed net sales of 230,517 bales for the 2027/28 (current) marketing year and 122,994 for 2028/29 for a total of 353,511.This was up from 77,391 the previous week and the highest since the start of the marketing year. This broke a 4-week drought in sales. However, it is not unusual for sales to start off slowly. Cumulative sales for 2027/28 have reached 4.735 million bales, up from 4.059 million at this time last year and below the five-year average of 5.811 million. Sales have reached 41% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 50% for this point in the marketing year. Shipments totaled 164,704 bales, up from 142,076 the previous week. Mexico was the biggest buyer at 189,827 bales, and that included 120,000 for 2027/28. China canceled 4,702. West Texas will have more frequent opportunities for rain in the next two weeks, but that may raise some fiber quality issues. The US Drought Monitor indicated an area representing approximately 72% of US cotton production was experiencing drought at of September 22, up from 65% the previous week and the highest since June. At this point in the season it is too late for rain to help the crop. Dry conditions are good for harvest. Rains can affect fiber quality if they fall on open bolls. The rally in the dollar back to July highs this week undermines US export prospects.
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