Written Commentary
CORN
Prices closed $.01-$.02 higher in choppy 2-sided trade after reaching a fresh 4-month low overnight. Spreads were mixed ahead of Day 1 of the Goldman roll on Friday. Speculative traders unloaded another 12k contracts yesterday, reducing their long position to 51k. StoneX raised their 2026 US production forecast another 88 mil. bu. to 16.203 bil. with an average yield of 183.1 bpa, vs. the USDA estimates of 16.034 bil. and yield of 181.2 bpa. I look for the USDA to raise their production forecast 21 mil. bu. to 16.055 bil. with an average yield of 181.4 bpa. Ethanol production jumped to 336 mil. gallons last week, up from 329 mil. the previous week while up 1.8% YOY. Production was the highest in 10 months. There was 112 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 16.03 mil. bu. per day, above the 15.6 mbd needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.650 bil. bu. In the MY to date there has been 907 mil. bu. used, or 15.1 mbd, an annualized pace of 5.515 bil. bu. Production margins remain firm despite a pullback in the last week. Hope that China buys US corn this year may be running out as the SA forecast remains non-threatening however the recent pick-up in sales to Mexico may suggest we have reached an interim low. Census exports in Sept-26 at 279 mil. bu. was off 4.6% from Aug-26, however, up 1.5% YOY. Tomorrow’s weekly export sales are expected to range from 32-70 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
The Blue Wave from yesterday’s midterm elections that saw Democrats gain control of both the US House and Senate contributed to lower trade in the soybean complex today. Perhaps market’s fear that a lame duck Pres. Trump for the next 2 years may lead China (and others) to not adhere to previous trade agreements on US Ag. purchases. If nothing else, it gave speculative traders further reasons to shed length in the soybean complex. Showers to exit the ECB over the next 24-36 hours setting up a warmer/dryer outlook across the nation’s midsection into mid-month which should enable harvest to wrap up in a timely manner. Prices were mostly lower with beans down $.08-$.12, meal was mixed while oil was down over $.01 ½ per lb. Spreads weakened across the complex. Jan-27 beans closed at a fresh 2 ½ month low. Next support is at the Aug-26 low at $11.80 ¾. Dec-26 meal held support at yesterday’s low. Dec-26 oil plunged to a 7-month low on fears a Democratically controlled Congress will not to be as supportive of green diesel produced from domestic feedstock’s while sharply lower HO prices didn’t help. Yesterday’s net selling across the complex took the combined MM long position down to 367k, still historically large however below the recent record of 558k. Crush margins dropped another $.08 to $2.06 ½ bu. while bean oil PV dipped back under 50%. I estimate Chinese purchases are nearing 20 mmt. StoneX raised their 2026 production forecast to 4.725 bil, up another 77 mil. bu. with an average yield of 55 bpa, vs. the USDA est. of 4.562 bil. and yield of 53.1 bpa. I look for the USDA to raise their production forecast 30 mil. bu. to 4.592 bil. with an average yield of 53.5 bpa. The USDA announced a flash sale of 167k mt (6.2 mil. bu.) to Spain. Census exports in Sept-26 at 134 mil. bu. is up 28% YOY. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 35-90 mil. bu. for soybeans, 250-500k tons of meal and 0-10k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Prices drifted lower into the close finishing the session down $.01-$.04. CGO Dec-26 was down $.01 ¼ at $5.98 ½, Dec-26 KC was $.03 ½ lower at $6.33 while Dec-26 MIAX was off $.02 ¾ at $6.16 ¾. Spot CGO and KC both held support above the summer lows while spot MIAX made a new contract low. Prices will remain sensitive to Chinese demand interest, or lack thereof. The US, Russia and Ukraine have agreed to host tri-lateral peace talks in the UAE on Nov. 10th and 11th. Ukraine Pres. Zelenskiy has urged all parties to discuss a ceasefire on energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea region. Recent rains should enable further easing of drought conditions in the US plains. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports 3.95 mil. HA of WW has been planted, representing 87% of the intended acres. Census exports in Sept-26 at 57 mil. bu. was down 52% YOY while YTD exports are off 32% vs. the USDA forecast of down 17%. I expect US stocks to hold steady at 740 mil. bu. in next week’s WASDE. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 12-24 mil. bu.
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