ADMIS News
COCOA
March Cocoa extended this week’s selloff early Friday and was approaching the October 1 spike low, as a steady increase in exchange stocks counters concerns about potential difficulties with the upcoming crops due to El Nino. ICE cocoa stocks increased by 15,315 bags on Thursday to 3.740 million, their highest since May 20, 2024. Parts of West Africa are expected to receive enough rain over the next week to temporarily increase soil moisture, according to World Weather Inc. The dry season approaches, and El Nino does raises the risk of this year it being dryer than normal. It’s also possible that all the hype about the Super El Nino is getting a bit thin. Current prices at around $5200 per metric ton, while nowhere near the record $13,000 from 2024, are still well above the all-time high of $3900 that existed prior to 2023.
COTTON
March Cotton was near unchanged early Friday and was holding near Wednesday’s post-election high. Thursday’s export sales data came in supportive, with current crop sales the highest for the marketing year so far, but that was not enough to extend the rally this week. Sharply lower equity prices may have limited the gains because textile consumption is tied closely to the economic outlook. The dollar jumped overnight, which is also viewed as negative for US export prospects. Thursday export sales report showed net cotton sales for the week ending October 29 at 277,522 bales, all for the 2026/27 (current) marketing year. This was up from 254,833 the previous week and was the highest combined total since September 17. Cumulative sales for 2026/27 have reached 5.943 million bales, up from 4.961 million at this time last year but below the five-year average of 6.860 million. Sales have reached 51% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 58% for this point in the marketing year.
SUGAR
March Sugar edged lower overnight to its lowest level since September 22. The low that day at 18.02 could be a key support area as that represents the bottom of a trading range in place since mid-August. A record net long position held by the funds, ideas that the bullish production news from Europe, India and Brazil had reached a peak, and the collapse in the Brazilian real that encourage hedge selling have contributed to the selloff from contract highs from mid-October. This week’s news that Indian sugar production soared in October may have also contributed to the selling, as that runs counter to the theme of reduced production this year due to reduced monsoon rainfall. However, the boost may not last long, as the key state of Maharashtra started earlier than normal. The low rainfall this year may hurt next year’s cane crop. The weak real is expected to boost Brazilian sales, but their crop prospects are limited for the remainder of the year due to excessive rain. Next year could be different, as this year’s rains are good for next year’s crop. A break below 18.00 could set off a wave of fund selling.
COFFEE
March Coffee was slightly higher early Friday but in the lower half of Thursday’s range. The market has been weaker on expectation of an influx of Brazilian exports after the collapse in the Brazilian real in late October. ICE certified arabica stocks remain stubbornly low, even if they did increase by 4,392 bags on 224,771 on Thursday. This came after reaching their lowest levels since September 15 the day before. World Weather Inc said the recent dry bias in Brazil coffee areas will begin to abate as showers and thunderstorms increase again over the next few days. They categorized the mix of weather as beneficial for cherry development. Overall, conditions have been favorable for the 2027/28 crop. Reports of Uganda’s exports falling 13% year-on-year in October and projections for Central America and Mexico production to fall 9.3% in 2026/27 season did little to support the market this week.
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