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Ag Market View for Apr 22


WOW!!!. Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, corn and wheat all traded sharply higher and like the middle of a drought market. There is no drought but could be some panic buying as US 2020/21 supplies tighten. Strong US domestic soybean crush margins continues to trigger commercial buying. Higher World vegoil prices is also supporting the crush margin and pushing soyoil futures higher. Higher daily China Dalian soymeal futures has helped push soymeal futures higher. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 2 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,235 mil bu vs 1,390 last year. USDA goal is 2,280. China commit is near 1,306 mil bu with 55 mil bu in unknown. China could be World largest soybean short with 2021/22 soybean buying well behind what they will need. Nearby soybean futures traded above 2014 high. Next objective could be 2013 high near 16.30.

Monthly nearby soybean futures chart



May and July corn futures traded up the daily limit. CK was trading 6.55 and CN 6.35 ½ in the synthetic market. Talk of lower Brazil supplies, increase US domestic demand and potential for Brazil to import US corn triggered new speculative buying and short covering. China has been buying new crop US corn and French wheat. There is also talk that Brazil may need to buy US and Argentina corn. Some feel dry May could drop final Brazil corn crop closer to 92-93 mmt versus USDA 109. Market also concerned about dry weather in parts of US plains and Europe and wet weather in Argentina. Cold US and Europe weather has slowed early crop growth of crops. Weekly US corn export sales were near 15 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,645 mil bu vs 1,391 last year. USDA goal is 2,675. China commit is near 909 mil bu with 122 mil in unknown. US China Ag Attaché est China corn imports at 1,100 mil bu vs USDA 945. Some are closer to 1,340. China could be World largest corn short with 2021/22 corn buying well behind what they will need. Nearby corn futures filled the gap from 2013 on the weekly chart. Next objective could be near 6.85-7.20. USDA announced plan to increase CRP set aside acres 4.0 million. There is 20.8 million acres in CRP. Current cap is 25.0 million. 2023 cap increases to 27.0.

Monthly nearby corn futures chart



 Wheat futures traded sharply higher. Talk of China buying French wheat, concern about 2012 US, EU and Black Sea crops and sharply higher corn futures triggered new buying in wheat. USDA in April raised World wheat demand and lowered end stocks. World 2012 crops need to increase 10-12 mmt to keep end stocks from dropping for the 5th straight year. Higher corn prices and lower corn supplies could force World cattle feeders to increase wheat feeding. There is already talk that China will increase wheat feeding to record numbers. Drawdown in China wheat reserves for feeding will reduce their end stocks in the future. Weekly US wheat export sales were near 9 mil bu, Total commit is near 932 mil bu vs 935 last year. Talk of cold temps in Europe and wet weather in Russia could lower 2021 wheat crop there. Talk that this week’s freeze may have stressed US winter wheat crop. West US winter wheat areas and US north plains and Canada prairies could be drier than normal this summer. Nearby Chicago wheat traded over Dec,2014 high on the monthly chart. Next objective could be 7.35.

  Weekly Chicago nearby wheat futures chart

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