ADMIS News
SUGAR
July Sugar was lower early Friday on follow through from Thursday’s weaker close. Reports from Brazil suggest a strong cane crop this year that may boost sugar production despite a bigger focus on ethanol. A Tereos VP said the company is projecting an even bigger Brazilian cane crush this year than the 12% gain they had been expecting. He added the they “started the crop with max ethanol, but we are moving to max crush,” and that the mix will be more balanced, meaning less ethanol and more sugar than expected.
COTTON
July Cotton extended its selloff from Wednesday’s contract highs early Friday following a collapse in prices on Thursday. Apparently market bulls had been counting on a trade breakthrough from the Trump/Xi meeting, and when that didn’t happen, the bulls seemed to give up. The weak export sales report on Thursday didn’t help either. The report showed US cotton export sales for the week ending May 7 at 47,699 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 29,716 for 2026/27 for a total of 77,415. This was down from 171,749 the previous week and was the lowest current-crop sale of the 2025/26 marketing year so far and the lowest combined sale since 2024/25. The market also moved past the ostensibly bullish USDA WASDE report this week that put US production and ending stocks lower this year, as the 20-cent-plus rally since mid-March has the trade expecting a higher planted acreage number in June. The weekly US Drought Monitor showed an area representing approximately 97% of US cotton production was experiencing drought as of March 12, only a slight improvement from 98% the previous week. A year ago, only 20% was experiencing drought. The Delta and southeastern states have received some relief this week, and World Weather Inc say there are more chances for rain the week after next. West Texas rainfall is expected to be minimal for another week, and then showers and thunderstorms may start to pop up periodically.
COCOA
July Cocoa was slightly lower early Friday but seemed to find support around the 100-day moving average (4047) and the 0.382 retracement of the rally from the March 2 low to Monday’s high (4060). The market traded below those levels at one point but climbed back above them. Bloomberg reported that Ivory Coast has raised its production forecast to 2.0-2.2 million metric tons, up from 1.8-1.9 previously, citing people familiar with the matter. Good growing weather was credited for the increase. There was also mention of still burdensome supplies from the main harvest last fall. Ivory Coast farmers protested last week because they still had unsold stocks. The US Climate Prediction Center has given El Nino an 82% chance of arriving in May-July and a 96% chance for it to last into in December 2026-February 2027. This could bring dry conditions to West Africa, but may not affect supply until late in the 2026/27 main crop or early mid-crop for 2026/27. In the meantime, the market must deal with strong production and sluggish demand.
COFFEE
July Coffee edged lower early Friday to its lowest level since putting in a spike low on Monday. The market is anticipating a strong Brazilian arabica harvest, which is just getting underway, and this is keeping a negative bias on prices. After reaching its highest level in two years, the Brazilian real fell sharply on Wednesday and held those losses yesterday. The strong real is a disincentive for Brazilian growers and exporters to sell, so the retracement may encourage sales going forward. The USAD attaché in Mexico is forecasting that nation’s 2026/27 coffee production to 4.1 million bags (+1%).
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