Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.06 higher today, making session highs at the close. Nearby spreads weakened while new crop spreads firmed. New contracts lows were established in the overnight trade, nearly carving out a key reversal day in Dec-25. Export inspections slipped to 51 mil. bu. however above the 42 mil. bu. needed to reach the revised USDA forecast of 2.750 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 2.276 bil. are up 30% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 22%. MM’s last week bought 2,600 contracts reducing their net position to just below 204k contracts. AgRural estimates Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest has reached 40%, up from 28% LW however well below the 74% pace from YA. Best guess on final Brazil production in the 137-140 mmt range, vs. the USDA est. now at 132 mmt. Global stocks among major exporting countries increased from 7.3% to 7.5% for the 2024/25 MY, while slipping from 8.3% to 8.1% for 25/26. Stocks/use for Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine are currently forecast to fall to only 3.4% for 25/26, the lowest in decade for the major exporting countries.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans steady to $.03 lower led by Aug-25, meal was down $2-$3 while oil closed 35-40 points higher. Bean and meal spreads weakened while oil spreads firmed. Fresh 3 month lows for old and new crop bean contracts in early trade. Support for Aug-25 is at the April low of $9.82 ¾. Support for Nov-25 is at $9.71. Early weakness triggered by favorable US weather and weekend news the Trump Administration announcing plans to impose a 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico. Spot board crush margins improved another $.02 to $1.84 per bu., a fresh 9 month high, with bean oil % of PV improving to 50.3%. As expected the USDA made an aggressive shift in the 2025/26 balance sheet lowering bean oil exports 1 bil. lbs. with domestic usage for biofuel production surging 1.6 bil. lbs. to a record 15.5 bil. lbs. Over half of the bean oil produced in this country will now be used for biofuel production. Resistance for Aug-25 oil is at the June high just below $.56 lb. New contract low for Aug-25 meal and fresh 9 year low on the monthly chart. Export inspections fell to a new MY low at only 5.4 mil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.705 bil. are up 10% from YA, in line with the revised USDA forecast of 1.865 bil. MM’s were net sellers of 6,641 contracts of soybean flipping their net position around to net short for the 1st time in 3 months. MM’s were lite sellers of oil while light buyers of meal. NOPA members are expected to have processed 185.2 mil. bu. last month. While down 4% from May it would be up 5.5% from June-24 and a record high for the month. Est. range from 182 – 188 mil. bu. Bean oil stocks are expected to remain flat from the previous month near 1.374 bil. lbs. however this is down more than 15% from the 1.662 bil. lbs. from June YA. Global bean stocks/use ratio’s among major exporting countries ticked up from 19.5% to 20.3% in the 2024/25 MY, and from 18.9% to 19.6% for 25/26.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.01-$.04 lower in KC and CGO to $.10 lower in MGEX. Spreads weakened in CGO, while steady in KC. Pres. Trump threatened Russia with 100% tariffs if a peace deal with Ukraine is not reached in the next 50 days. A secondary tariff may also apply to any country doing business with Russia. Export inspections at 16 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and in line with the total needed to reach the revised USDA forecast of 850 mil. bu. YTD inspections at 84 mil. bu. are down 3% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 3%. MM’s bought 7.5k contracts in CGO, 3.4k in MGEX while selling 1k in KC. IKAR reported Russia’s wheat export price ended LW at $229/mt up from $225/mt the previous week. SovEcon reports Russia exported 160k mt of wheat LW, up from 100k mt the previous week. They project total exports in July will reach only 2.1-2.6 mmt, well below the 3.9 mmt shipped in July-24.
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