Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.05 lower while spreads were mixed and little changed. Sept-26 and Dec-26 both fell to fresh 2-week lows. Prices plunged across the Ag. space as healthy rains spread across the central and N. Midwest. Old crop exports are up 24% YOY vs. the USDA forecast up 16%. I look for the USDA to raise their old crop export forecast another 25-50 mil. in the Aug-26 WASDE. New crop commitments have reached 340 mil. bu. matching YA while the highest in 5 years. The BAGE held their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 64 mmt, vs. the USDA 63 mmt est. Harvest advanced only 3% in the past week to 70%. Ukraine’s Grain Association raised their 2026 production forecast to 32.1 mmt, up 3.2% YOY and is well above the USDA est. of 30 mmt. Senator John Boozman (R-Ark.), Chair of the Senate Ag. committee stated the new farm bill will include legislation allowing the voluntary year-round sale of E-15. While a favorable US weather outlook for now will limit upside price potential, I expect Dec-26 will find support above $4.50. Despite this week’s weakness, Dec-26 closed the month up $.28 bu., its best performance for the month since 2012. December corn closed higher in the month of July only 3 of the past 10 years.
SOYBEANS
Prices turned lower across the complex led by soybean oil. Beans were $.01-$.05 lower, meal was down $1-$2 while oil ranged from 20-120 points lower. Bean and meal spreads were mixed while oil spreads were sharply lower on the heavier than expected deliveries. Both Aug-26 and Nov-26 beans traded to 3-4 week lows. Aug-26 meal fell to a 4-week low. Key support for Aug-26 oil rests at the July low at 65.59. Soybeans initially drawing support from a flash sale of 252k mt (9.2 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer. Crush margins were off another $.12 ½ to $2.53 ½ bu. a fresh 5-month low, while bean oil PV has fallen below 52%. Census crush data, due out Monday’s is expected to show 218 mil. bu. were processed in June-26, up from 197 mil. in June-25. Bean oil stocks are expected to reach 2.113 bil. lbs. up from 1.894 bil. in June-25. After auctioning roughly half of the 500k mt of soybeans on Friday, China’s Sinograin announced plans to auction off another 501k next Wednesday to free up space for incoming US beans. Combined biodiesel and RD production in May-26 was a new record high at 497 mil. gallons. Bean oil usage for green diesel production in May-26 surged to 1.434 bil. lbs. a new record high, up 17% from the previous month and 40% from May-25. In the first 8 months of the 25/26 MY, bean oil usage has reached 8.772 bil. lbs., up 16.8% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 24%. Usage will need to average 1.445 bil. lbs. per month June-Sept to reach the USDA forecast of 14.550 bil. lbs.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.21-$.24 lower. CGO Sept-26 was down $.24 ¼ at $6.39 ¼ with next support at its 100-day MA at $6.31 ¼. KC Sept-26 was $.23 ¼ lower at $7.07 ½, finding support near its 50-day MA at $7.03 ½. MIAX Sept-26 was down $.21 ¾ at $6.89 ¾ with next support between $6.76-$6.79. While logistical problems securing agricultural products from the Black Sea region remain unsolved, so far global buyers haven’t chased alternative sources. US export commitments are down 25% YOY, vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%. Ukraine is reviewing other export options while reports indicate there has been a small movement of Russian grain to the Middle East from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Ukrainian drones struck a major Russian grain export terminal at the port of Taman, near the Kerch Strait causing “significant damage.” Expect market volatility to remain high as both sides continue to target grain storage, infrastructure and vessels. The Ukraine Grain Association raised their 2026 wheat production forecast to 23.7 mmt, up 5.3% YOY and in line with the USDA est. of 24 mmt.
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