Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.15-$.17 lower however managed to hold above LW’s contracts lows for now. New crop spreads widened to new lows. Today’s announced reciprocal tariffs on Japan and S. Korea likely to impact corn more so than the rest of the Ag. space. In recent years Japan and S. Korea have been the 2nd and 4th largest buyers of US corn. Combined commitments so far in 24/25 MY have reached 722 mil. bu. vs. 768 mil. for the 23/24 MY. AgRural reports Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest advanced 10% to 28% complete, well behind the 63% pace from YA. Export inspections rebounded to 59 mil. bu., in line with expectations and above the 34 mil. bu. needed to reach the USDA forecast of 2.650 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 2.222 bil. are up 30% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. New crop will likely be lowered hinging on how aggressive the USDA is in raising Brazilian production. The USDA also announced the sale of 135k mt (5.3 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico, most of this volume was for new crop 25/26 MY.
SOYBEANS
Prices were sharply lower across the complex with beans off $.24-$.28, meal was down $5-$6 while oil was 60-80 points lower. Bean spreads weakened while product spreads firmed. Despite the weakness both old and new crop soybean futures have held above LW’s lows. Aug-25 meal held above its contract low of $271 per ton. Spot board crush margins rebounded $.06 to $1.53 ½ bu. with bean oil PV rebounding to just above 50%. New crop crush margins jumped $.05 ½ to $2.00 a bu. Seasonal temperatures and normal rainfall will continue to benefit US corn and soybean yield prospects into late July. Today’s selloff wiped out the gains made Wed. and Thur. of last week as markets speculated Pres. Trump may announce progress on a trade deal with China involving the purchase of US Ag. goods. Ahead of Friday’s USDA production and WASDE data, trade deals (or the lack there of) will dominate news in the Ag. space this week. Export inspections at 14 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations and in line with the weekly amount needed to reach the USDA forecast of 1.850 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.699 bil. are up 11% from YA vs. USDA forecast of up 9%. Egypt, Mexico and Indonesia all took 3 mil. bu. Trade negotiations with China appear to be placed on the back burner as the Trump Administration focuses on other trading partners.
WHEAT
Prices are $.08-$.10 lower in KC and CGO while MGEX futures were off $.17 bu. Spreads are little changed. Export inspections at 16 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations and in line with the weekly total needed to reach the USDA forecast of 825 mil. bu. YTD inspections at 65 mil. bu. are up 1.5% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 1%. IKAR reports Russia’s export price for wheat last week was $225/mt, up $3 from the previous week. SovEcon reports Russian wheat exports LW at only 100k mt, down from 190k the previous week. Russia’s Ag. Ministry has eliminated their export tax on wheat shipments for the period July 9th thru the 15th in an attempt to stimulate sales. This is the first time they cut this tax to zero since it was first implemented in 2021.
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