Written Commentary
CORN
Prices rebounded $.04-$.06 today led by spot July-24. July penetrated 100 day MA resistance at $4.50 ¾ intraday, settling just below it. Next resistance is at LW’s high at $4.60 ½. Inside trading session for Dec-24, next resistance at the 100 day MA of $4.71 ¾. Corn emergence has reached 93% vs. 95% YA and the 5 year Ave. of 92%. Ratings slipped 2% to 72% G/E as there was a 2% shift to fair. The CC index at 83.1 still matches the highest since 2020. 10 states saw ratings decline while conditions improved in 8 states. Biggest drops were in NC down 21% and CO down 10%. Biggest increases were in MO and TN both up 6%. Chinese imports in May-24 at 1.05 mmt were down 37% from May-23. YTD imports at 10.13 mmt are down less than 1% from YA. EU corn imports thru June 16th for the 23/24 MY have reached 17.97 mmt, down 30.6% from YA. It will be critical that the central and eastern corn belts get some precipitation relief by the end of June to restore lost soil moisture and maintain favorable yield prospects. Above normal temperatures look to stick around thru month end. Longer range forecasts will drive price action Wednesday evening.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was higher across the board led by strength in nearby July-24 contracts. Beans were up $.02-$.16, meal was up $1-$4 while oil was 55 higher. July-24 beans made a fresh 8 week low overnight, however held support just above the May 1st low. Resistance is at the 50/100 MA’s near $11.96 1/2. Inside day for July-24 meal as it continues to bounce off support at its 50 day MA, currently $360.50. July-24 BO broke out if its near-term range stalling out just below the 50 day MA resistance at 44.76. Heavy rains still expected for the NW third of the Midwest. No more than scattered precipitation for the SE 2/3rd’s of the Midwest with daily high temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s thru Sunday. The first half of week #2 of the forecast brings better prospects for rain and slightly cooler temperatures in the east with much above normal temps spreading west. Bean plantings advanced to 93%, in line with expectations. Progress remains below YA pace of 97% and just ahead of the 5-year Ave. of 91%. 82% of the crop has emerged, vs. 90% YA and 5-year Ave. of 79%. Ratings dropped 2% to 70% G/E a slightly larger drop than expected. Overall ratings are still the highest since 2020. Ratings fell in 7 states while improving in 9 and held steady in 2. Biggest drop in ratings was NC down 16% and IL down 8%. ABIOVE lowered their Brazilian production forecast 1.4 mmt to 152.5 mmt in step with the USDA reduction to 153 mmt, both above Conab’s June est. of 147.35 mmt. ABIOVE left their export forecast unchanged at 97.8 mmt, well below the USDA forecast of 102 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices are another $.05-$.09 lower across all 3 classes today. Both July and Sept Chicago made fresh 8 week lows with prices $1.40 off last month’s high. Chicago July-24 premium to corn plunged another $.16 today to $1.32, down $1.20 from last month’s peak, trying to work itself back into feed rations. New contract lows in MGEX with next support for spot July-24 at $6.25. Winter wheat conditions improved 2% to 49% G/E vs. expectations of holding steady. The CC index improved to 78.5, the highest since 2020. Current ratings suggest an average WW yield of 52 bpa, vs. the revised USDA est. of 51.4 last week. Historically the largest production increase from June to final was in 2016 when production rose 165 mil. bu. Last year was the 2nd largest jump up 111 mil. Harvest advanced to 27% complete well above expectations, the YA pace, and the 5-year Ave. Spring ratings jumped 4% last week to 76% G/E. The CC index at 82.9 is the highest since 2019.
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