Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with soybeans down $.02 – $.05, soybean meal steady to $1 higher while soybean oil was down 30 – 50. May-23 crush slipped $1.85 bu. the lowest since July-22. Soybean oil product value at under 37%, is the lowest since Feb-21. There was some rumored interest in US soybeans from China. Despite the continued lower production estimates from Argentina, the sheer size of this year’s Brazilian crops, and their inability to store them weighed on prices since Wednesday’s supportive USDA report. The Feb-23 employment reports showed 311,000 jobs were added last month, slightly above expectations. YOY wage growth at only 4.6% was below expectations of 4.8% providing some evidence of slowing inflation while supporting the argument for the next Fed rate hike of only 25 bp’s. The sudden collapse of SVB rattled financial markets. The US $$$ index was moderately lower, however rebounded sharply off the lows
CORN
Prices were able to stage a nice recovery today after making new lows for this week’s selloff. Uncertainty remains whether the Black Sea Grain Initiative will be extended as UN and Russian officials plan to meet next week in Geneva. Russia claims the current deal is only being half implemented as Ukraine ag. products are benefiting western nations, not Africa or SE Asian countries. Conditions to remain hot/dry in Argentina the weekend. Like soybeans, rumors of Chinese interest in US corn helped with the recovery and the $.04 – $.06 higher close. Prices will be sensitive to demand announcements next week. Spot May-23 did violate our downside objective of $6.15 this week, however never seriously challenged the $6.00 level.
WHEAT
Prices were able to stage a nice recovery today after making new lows for this week’s selloff. Uncertainty remains whether the Black Sea Grain Initiative will be extended as UN and Russian officials plan to meet next week in Geneva. Russia claims the current deal is only being half implemented as Ukraine ag. products are benefiting western nations, not Africa or SE Asian countries. Conditions to remain hot/dry in Argentina the weekend. Like soybeans, rumors of Chinese interest in US corn helped with the recovery and the $.04 – $.06 higher close. Prices will be sensitive to demand announcements next week. Spot May-23 did violate our downside objective of $6.15 this week, however never seriously challenged the $6.00 level.
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