Written Commentary
CORN
Prices jumped $.15-$.21 while spreads also strengthened. Resistance for July-26 is at its double top at $4.87 ½. Resistance for Dec-26 is at LW’s high of $5.06 ½. Money managers sold just over 44k contracts last week reducing their long position to just under 300k contracts. After Friday’s trade we had the MM long position down to 245k contracts. Good rains are expected across the nation’s midsection this week including the S. plains. Lighter amounts across the N. Midwest. No date has been set for the US Senate to vote on E-15. I look for US corn plantings to have reached 75% as of yesterday, vs. 76% YA and 5-year Ave. of 70%. Export inspections at 54 mil. bu. were in line with expectations, however below the 60 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 2.306 bil. are up 29% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. Noted buyers were Japan – 17 mil. and Mexico – 15 mil.
SOYBEANS
Prices were sharply higher across the complex with beans up $.27-$.36, meal was steady to $4 higher while bean oil was up just over $.01 ½ lbs. This weekend the Trump Admin. revealed a fact sheet which stated China would buy $17 bil. in agricultural goods over the next 3 years (prorated for 2026) in addition to the 25 mmt of US soybeans they pledged to purchase over the next 3 MY’s. This would take total annual US Ag. purchases to $28-$30 bil., the highest in 5 years. Resistance for July-26 beans is at last week’s high of $12.35. Resistance for Nov-26 is $12.14. Inside trade for July-26 meal. Resistance for July-26 oil is at this month’s contract high of 76.99. S&P Global estimates $.91 lb. is the B/E bean oil price for a California RD producer. Crush margins fell $.16 to $3.55 bu. while bean oil PV rose to 53.1%. Implied census crush from Friday’s NOPA data at 215 mil. bu. brings YTD crush to 1.776 bil. up 8.2% from YA vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 7.6%. To reach the USDA est. crush May through Aug. will need to reach 854 mil. bu. vs. 804 YA. Bean oil stocks held by NOPA members at 1.947 bil. lbs. were a touch below the average guess of 1.954 and down 4.5% from April. I look for US soybean plantings to stay at a record pace reaching 65% as of yesterday, vs. 63% YA and 5-year Ave. of 53%. Export inspections at 18 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations while just above the 17 mil. needed per week to reach the revised USDA est. of 1.530 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.267 bil. are down 22% from YA vs. the revised USDA forecast of down 16%. China took 7.5 mil. while Egypt and Mexico took 3.5 mil. each. In the week ended Tues. the 12th MM’s were modest sellers in soybeans and bean oil, while light buyers in soybean meal. Despite the lack of confirmation from China on the White House fact sheet, MM’s were back in a buying mood today. I suspect we’ll need to see some narrowing on the US FOB premium over SA soybean offers before Chinese buying starts up.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.16 to $.29 higher. CGO July-26 was up $.28 ¾ at $6.64 ½, KC July-26 was up $.15 ¾ at $7.03 ¼ while MIAX July-26 was $.18 higher at $7.03 ¼. Resistance for CGO July-26 is at LW’s high at $6.88 ¼. Inside trade for KC July-26. I look for spring wheat plantings to advance 20% to 73% complete, vs. 80% YA and 5-year average of 66%. I look for WW conditions to hold steady at 28% G/E. The market will also be mindful of the percentage of the crop rated poor/VP. Export inspections at 8 mil. bu. were below expectations. YTD inspections at 849 mil. bu. up 11% from YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast up 10%. Algeria is tendering for 50k mt of soft wheat with results expected mid-week. Their purchase volumes are typically significantly higher than the tender estimates. Sources are reporting US importers have bought between 120-200k mt of Polish wheat for summer shipment. IKAR is reporting Russian wheat prices for export rose $1 last week to $240/mt. They also raised their May-26 export forecast to 3.0 mmt.
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