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Ag Market View for Nov 8.22

SOYBEANS

Trade is awaiting results of the midterm election. For some, Managed fund long soybean, soymeal and soyoil position seems high. After the US election and tomorrows USDA report, grain futures will focus on global economy and impact inflation and higher interest rates will have on food and fuel demand. Trade will also be watching SA weather. Demise of La Nina could help 2023 north hemisphere crops and push futures lower. Some feel GOP will need to take both Houses of Congress today for stocks and commodities to rally. This could be negative to energies. Split may have limited impact. Talk of lower China soybean import demand and higher 2023 SA soybean supplies could eventually weigh on SF near 14.50. Support is 13.70. USDA is not expected to make much changes in US and World soybean supply and demand. USDA baseline numbers suggest higher US 10 year soybean yields, demand, carryout and lower on farm prices.

Grain Bins

CORN

For some, Managed Fund long corn position seems high. After the US election and tomorrow’s USDA report, grain futures will focus on global economy and impact inflation and higher interest rates will have on food and fuel demand. Trade will also be watching SA weather and Ukraine War and impact on their grain exports. Demise of La Nina could help 2023 north hemisphere crops and push futures lower. Talk of lower US corn export demand and higher 2023 SA soybean supplies could eventually weigh on CH near 7.00. Support is 6.70. USDA could lower US corn exports tomorrow. USDA baseline numbers suggest higher US 10 year corn yields, feed and residual demand, carryout and lower on farm prices. Matif corn again got dragged lower by wheat, and once again the bulk of the losses came in the last 90 Minutes of trading. Elsewhere US markets are showing caution ahead of mid-term elections. CBOT corn is near 6.73 CH ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report despite rumors of a longer term deal for the Ukraine corridor. Turkey is asking for a guaranteed 12months.. S American weather forecast is improving.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended lower. Egypt passed on their tender. Prices and freight were too high. Russia wheat prices are cheapest to buyers. Their exports are on pace to USDA goal. KWH is near the midpoint of a 9.00-10.00 range. US HRW and Argentina wheat crop areas are too dry. Australia is too wet. USDA baseline numbers suggest higher US 10 year wheat yields, slightly higher total demand, carryout and lower on farm prices. For some, Managed fund large short Chicago wheat may also be too high. After the US election and tomorrows USDA report, grain futures will focus on global economy and impact inflation and higher interest rates will have on food and fuel demand. Trade will also be watching Ukraine War and impact on their grain exports. Demise of La Nina could help 2023 north hemisphere crops and push futures lower. For the second straight day, after having spent most of the session fairly flat, Matif wheat turned lower late in the session. Russian wheat will continue to be the cheapest on a Fob basis, so importers will continue as far as possible to run their buying as near pot as possible. Adding to the weakness in Matif were the market rumors that the UN/NATO would agree to removing sanctions on Rosselkhozbank to boost Russian Ag/fertilizer exports, and that this could happen as early as this week

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