Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended lower. Concern about lower demand for US soybeans and record Brazil 2023 soybean crop is offering resistance. Some are looking for heavy November soybean deliveries. Weekly soybean exports were a record 106 mil bu vs 94 last year. Season to date exports is near 279 mil bu vs 316 last year. Most look for US soybean harvest at 77 pct done. Open harvest weather suggest this could be the last week for harvest. Rains are forecast for south Miss river but nay not be enough to offset record lower water levels. BOZ made a new high for the move near 72.56.
CORN
Corn futures ended marginally lower. CZ continues to trade mostly sideways between 6.50 and 7.00. CZ also following the 20 DMA near 6.82. Lower US export demand offers strong overhead resistance. Slow farmer selling and fact US feeders and crushers need corn offers support. There remains a large spread between higher feeder and crush basis and lower export basis. Rains are forecast for south Miss river but nay not be enough to offset record lower water levels. Weekly corn exports were only 18 mil bu vs 25 last year. Season to date exports is near 148 mil bu vs 189 last year. Most look for US corn harvest at 62 pct done. Open harvest weather suggest this could be the last week for harvest. Talk of a record Brazil 2023 corn crop offers resistance Fact South America and Ukraine corn prices remain lower than US also limits the upside in futures. US domestic basis levels are mixed. US crushers and feeders need corn. Basis there remains strong. Logistics challenges along the river system and threat of a RR strike has weaken basis there. Some could see US 2022/23 corn carryout out closer to 1,200 mil bu. Lower exports offset higher feed and residual. 2023 prices appear to be high if US farmers add 3.0 mil acres trend yield is near 180.5 and carryout increase to 2,000 mil bu.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Weekly wheat exports were only 4 mil bu vs 7 last year. Season to date exports is near 348 mil bu vs 350 last year. With a reported 150 vessels stuck in Istanbul waiting for inspection, the cut-off date for inbound vessels is just 10 days away and few owners are going to put vessels in such a situation. Outcome for Ukraine corridor key to prices. Black Sea weather problems persist on land with late plantings, and at sea with high winds disrupting loadings. Market continue to look for high protein.
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