Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.06 higher, closing near session highs. Dec-26 futures held within yesterday’s range. Since 1990 the USDA lowered their corn yield forecast in August 17 times, including this year. In 10 of those years’ yields were cut again in September, while 6 years yields increased. Large speculative traders have been net sellers of corn the past 4 sessions, prior to today, cutting their long holding to just under 400k. Argentine exporters expect to ship 10 mmt of corn in Aug/Sept, more than double last year’s volume as their prices hold well below US and Brazilian FOB offers. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised their 2026/27 planting est. 200k HA to 10.6 mil. HA, still down 3.6% YOY. Brazil’s exports for September are expected to only 5.2 mmt, well below the 6.98 from Sept-25. Expana lowered their 26/27 EU production forecast 2.9 mmt to 46.2 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 50.2. EIA data showed ethanol production slipped to 323 mil. gallons, down from 326 mil. the previous week, while down less than 1% YOY. Today’s data covered the last 3 days of the 25/26 MY, and the first 4 days of the 26/27 MY. There was 108 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 15.4 mil. bu. per day, an annualized pace of 5.625 bil. bu. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 16 – 76 mil. bu. for both marketing years combined.
SOYBEANS
Prices surged late, closing into new highs. Beans were $.19-$.23 higher trading to new contract highs. Meal was up $4-$6 while oil was up well over $.01 lb. Oct-26 meal held just below LW’s high at $350.80 while Oct-26 oil rejected trade below its 50 and 100-day MA’s. The USDA announced flash sales of 272k mt (10 mil. bu.) to China and 206.5k mt (7.6 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer. Since 1990 the USDA lowered yields in August 19 times, in the previous 18 years yields in September were raised 7 times, while lowered 11. Chinese purchases of US beans have likely reached 13 mmt with Chinese leader Xi visit to Washington 2 weeks away. Speculative holdings in soybeans and meal at or near record length while the bean oil long position at 105k remains historically large. US Gulf FOB offers remain $.15-$.25 below Brazilian offers through the end of 2026, however both are well above offers from Argentina. The RGE lowered their 2026/27 planting est. 100k HA to 16.7 mil. HA compared to the BAGE forecast at 17 mil. HA. Brazilian exports in Sept-26 are expected to reach 7.74 mmt, vs. 6.97 YA. The prospects for higher US demand leaves little room for lower US yields or risk sharply lower stocks and even higher prices. Export sales are expected to range from 18-95 mil. bu. of soybeans, 150-900k tons of meal and 0-12k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.12-$.15 higher also closing near session highs. CGO Dec-26 was $.12 ½ higher at $7.41 ¼, KC Dec-26 was also $.12 ½ higher at $8.18 ¾ while Dec-26 MIAX was $.14 ½ higher at $7.62 ½. While Russia and Ukraine continue to target each other port infrastructure with missile/drone strikes, Moscow hints diplomacy may lead to a peaceful solution to end the war. SovEcon lowered their Russian export forecast another 3.2 mmt to 41.4 vs. the USDA est. of 46 mmt. Sept-26 shipments are expected to reach 2 mmt. The RGE raised their Argentine production forecast .5 mmt to 21 mmt, matching the USDA est. Expana lowered their EU production forecast by another .7 mmt to 126.1 mmt, well below the Aug-26 USDA est. of 134.2. The USDA FAS lowered Bangladesh’s import forecast to 6.6 mmt in 2026/27, down from 7.4 mmt YA, citing high costs. The Reuters poll shows traders expect little change in wheat stocks at 717 mil. bu. in Aug-26, vs. our estimate of 727 mil. bu. Export sales are expected to range from 9-18 mil. bu.
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