Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
November soybean futures traded lower and closer to 14.08. SX traded below last moving average support near 14.16. Next support level could be 13.75. Weekly US soybean exports were near 9 mil bu vs 17 last year. This was less than expected. Barge traffic to gulf may be limited due to low draft water levels. Season to date exports were near 43 mil bu vs 36 last year. USDA goal is 2,085 mil bu vs 2,145 ly. Some feel exports could drop to 1,900 due to slow export to China and talk of higher 2023 South America crops. Sep 30 USDA estimate of US Sep 1 stocks could be key if estimated below USDA 240. Despite a mostly dry week, trade estimates US Soybean crop rated 55 pct G/E vs 55 last week. US soybean harvest is estimated near 11 pct vs 3 last week
CORN
Corn futures traded lower. Higher US Dollar and concern about global recession slowing demand weighed on futures. Weekly US corn exports were near 18 mil bu vs 27 last year. This was less than expected. Barge traffic to gulf may be limited due to low draft water levels. Season to date exports were near 63 mil bu vs 52 last year. USDA goal is 2,275 mil bu vs 2,475 ly. Some feel exports could drop to 2,000 due to slow global imports and talk of lower Ukraine and South America prices. Trade estimates US corn crop rated 52 pct G/E versus 52 last week. US corn harvest is estimated near 13 pct vs 7 last week. Trade still looking for a lower October crop estimate but lower exports could offset a lower crop. US farmer is still a slow seller which supports basis and spreads. Sep 30 USDA estimate of US Sep 1 stocks could be key if estimated below USDA 1,525. There is also concern that lower US gas use either due to end of summer or higher inflation could lower ethanol demand. Will need some South America 2023 weather concern or drop in Black Sea exports to move over resistance. US harvest should fill the pipeline but market could see a post harvest bounce to satisfy especially domestic demand.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Higher US Dollar and lower Russian wheat prices weighed on wheat futures. Weekly US wheat exports were near 19 mil bu vs 143 last year. This was less than expected. US prices are above both EU and Russia. Season to date exports were near 285 mil bu vs 299 last year. USDA goal is 825 mil bu vs 800 ly. There remains concern about lower global trade and demand due to inflation concerns lowering demand for wheat. US Dollar is making new highs which could reduce demand for US wheat. US south plains HRW area remains dry over next 2 weeks. Sep 30 USDA estimate of US Sep 1 stocks could be key if estimated below 1,775. Trade estimates that 33 pct of the US winter wheat crop is panted vs 21 last week. US spring wheat harvest is almost done at 97 pct versus 94 last week. WZ rejected the 9.00 level and is near the 20 day moving average at 8.51. Next support is 8.23.
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