Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.03-$.04 lower in choppy, 2-sided trade, while little changed for the week. Spreads were steady to easier. The BAGE held their Argentine 2025/26 production forecast steady at 64 mmt, vs. USDA 63 mmt, while reporting harvest has reached 93%. New crop plantings are underway with 1.5% of the 8.4 mil. HA seeded. Yesterday, IMEA forecast Mato Grosso’s 2nd crop corn in 2026/27 would fall to 53.7 mmt in 2026/27, down 7.5% from YA as El Nino would likely cut into yields. Linn and Associates is forecasting US production at 15.768 bil. bu. with an average yield of 178 bpa. Their forecast is 245 mil. bu. the USDA est. in August. We’ll have our production and carryout est. on Tuesday, ahead of the USDA production and WASDE reports on Friday the 11th. US census exports through July-26 are 20% above YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 18%. Expectations for lower US and EU production combined with potential higher demand has been the catalyst for prices reaching 3-year highs. While Dec-26 corn prices stalled just below $5.50 this week, they also held support above $5.25 yesterday when wheat prices were sharply lower.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly lower with beans down $.06-$.08, meal was mixed and little changed while oil was down 70-80 points. Beans and oil spreads were mixed while meal spreads weakened. Oct-26 meal jumped out to a 2-year high before pulling back while Oct-26 oil fell to a new low for the week. Rains will continue to favor the N. Midwest, Great Lakes region and the Gulf Coast with the central and southern Midwest remaining hot/dry thru mid Sept-26, pushing crops toward maturity at the expense of lower yields. Crush margins were off another $.03 at $2.33 ½ bu. with bean oil PV falling to 49.4%. The CFTC will likely report a new all-time combined long position held by MM’s in the soybean complex this afternoon. Linn and Associates sees US production at 4.459 bil. with a yield of 52 bpa vs. the USDA forecast at 4.519 bil. and yields at 52.7 bpa. This week’s census data suggests the USDA old crop export forecast is 10-15 mil. bu. too low while new crop sales to China/unknown continue to stack up. I’d estimate China’s purchases are nearing 12 mmt and will likely be more than halfway to their 25 mmt pledge ahead of Xi visit to Washington in 3 weeks. The USDA announced another flash sale, this time for 250.6 mmt (9.2 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer. Higher demand for both old and new crop leaves little wiggle room for US yields to fall below the current 52.7 bpa forecast, or risk sharply lower stocks and even higher prices. IMO poor finishing weather keeps the path of least resistance to the upside.
WHEAT
Prices fell to new session lows in late trade closing $.13 to $.20 lower. For the week prices were $.24-$.50 lower with CGO the downside leader. Despite today’s weakness, CGO and KC held within yesterday’s range. Monday nights open will largely be driven by weekend peace talks. Asian buyers continue to shun US suppliers, turning to Australia and Argentina in recent weeks to replace delayed cargoes from the Black Sea, often paying $50/mt CF more. Russian wheat exports in Sept-26 are expected to fall to 1.6-2.0 mmt, less than half of their 3-year Ave. according to Rusagrotrans. Results from Saudi Arabia tender 535k mt of wheat for Nov/Dec shipment is expected to be announced on Monday. The UN FAO lowered their global 2026 wheat production forecast to 810.7 mmt, well below the Aug-26 USDA est. of 819.3 mmt. US spring wheat area in drought deepened another 2% to 82%, while WW areas in drought increased 3% to 59%.
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