Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SF is up 4 cents and near 14.21. SMF is near 403.6. BOF is near 70.75. CH is up 3 cents and near 6.72. WH is up 6 cents and near 8.31. KWH is up 1 cent and near 9.31. MWH is up 2 cents and near 9.64. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Bad formula for commodity prices is higher Dollar, increase interest rates and reduced China import buying.
Weekly US soybean export sales were 3rd highest on record. Some bears feel this could be near completion of China buying US. Talk of good Brazil weather, except dryness in south plus deep drop in Brazil currency is negative futures. 12 pct of Argentina soybean crop is planted with talk of lower acres due to dryness. Argentina farmer still awaiting confirmation of a new soya peso deal for December. Matif rapeseed futures are down 9 pct on news Ukraine export corridor plan will be extended.
Beware of markets that don’t go down on bearish news. Corn futures are higher. US corn export commit is down 52 pct from last year. There should be another good week next week of sales to Mexico. Some are beginning to look more closely at South America weather with N/C Brazil and NW Argentina weather favorable but drier in S Brazil and SE Argentina. Matif corn is down for the 12th straight day on news that Ukraine export corridor will remain open. Some Feel Ukraine could export 20 mmt corn and may be 25 mmt vs USDA 15.5. Key is there infrastructure with daily Russia bombing of key power plants.
Wheat futures dropped on Thursday on unconfirmed news that EU wheat was sold into US east coast. Russia wheat prices are lowest to buyers, There is also talk of Russia wheat into Mexico and Brazil. Argentina wheat crop is est between 12.4 to 13.4. Harvest is near 10 pct vs 20 average. Crop is rated 8 pct G/E vs 59 ly. Some feel Ukraine could export 12-14 mmt wheat and Russia 45 mmt. Key is higher freight cost, wait times in Turkey and higher risk/insurance cost. It will remain dry in US south plains.
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