ADMIS News
COFFEE
July Coffee turned higher after reaching its lowest level since Last August earlier in the session on Monday, signaling that perhaps sellers are taking a step back as they await the upcoming Brazilian harvest. The Brazilian real reached its highest level since February 2024 on Friday, which lowers the urgency for growers to sell. Crop expectations are running strong, however. World Weather Inc. reports cooler air moving through Brazilian coffee there was no threat of frost. They expect a mild to cool temperature regime will continue for much of the coming week.
COTTON
July Cotton inched to a new contract high early Monday but failed to follow through. It has been consolidating around contract highest of the past several sessions. Some US growing areas have received timely rainfall, but more is needed. Higher crude oil prices this morning lend some support to cotton on ideas that it higher polyester prices will boost cotton. The resilient stock market also lend support. For the USDA report on Tuesday, a Bloomberg survey of analysts showed an average trade expectation for US 2026/27 cotton production at 13.76 million bales (range 13.00-14.51), which would be down from 13.92 million in 2025/26. World Weather Inc. says West Texas rainfall is expected to be minimal for another week and then showers and thunderstorms may start to pop up periodically. There is still a big need for a general soaking rain and that is not likely to occur for a while.
COCOA
July Cocoa has taken out last week’s high to reach its highest level since January 20 and was approaching a gap from that day at 4783. The cocoa market is facing the prospects of lower production this year with the arrival on El Nino expected as early as June and with high fertilizer prices due to the Iran war. Farmers in Ghana still looking to be paid for this crops delivered this past fall will need funds to buy inputs for the next crop. World Weather Inc. said rain is predicted to impact most of west-central Africa’s cocoa areas during the next week to ten days. The daily distribution should vary greatly leaving a few areas dry while a few stronger thunderstorms pop up infrequently. The greatest rain may evolve over the weekend.
SUGAR
July Sugar may have found some support early Monday off the slightly higher crude oil prices on ideas it will further encourage Brazil and other nations to produce more ethanol from cane at the expense of sugar. They have already moving in that direction as indicated by the UNICA data, and Brazil is expected to raise the ethanol mix in their gasoline. The strong Brazilian real also discourages sugar exports. Analysts have been tightening global surplus forecasts for 2025/26 and 2026/27, and some are even calling for a deficits in 2026/27. The Indian Government has lowered its monsoon rainfall forecast to “below normal” due to El Nino, but World Weather Inc says the effects may be mitigated by conditions in the Arabian sea/Indian Ocean dipole. El Nino tends to bring dry conditions to the equatorial regions, but it may take some time for those results to affect sugar cane.
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