Global Ag News for Apr 10.2025

TOP HEADLINES

US-China soybean trade at great risk amid intensification of trade tensions

Over the past months, the US-China trade tensions have escalated. Late February Trump added 10% additional tariffs (totally 20%) on Chinese goods. China responded with 10-15% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products starting from March 10, including 10% on soybeans. On April 2, Trump announced the reciprocal tariffs, including 34% for all Chinese goods, coming into effect April 9. On April 4, China responded with 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods, taking effect April 10. On April 7, Trump threatened extra 50% tariffs on Chinese goods if China doesn’t withdraw the 34% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products. On April 8, the U.S. imposed 104% of tariffs in total on Chinese products. On April 9, China responded with extra 50% tariffs on U.S. products (totally 84%). The intensification of the US-China trade war poses great challenges to the soybean market, considering the U.S. is the second largest soybean exporter and China is the leading global soybean importer.

The impacts on 2024/25 U.S. soybean exports (Sep/Aug) could be marginal as China usually switches to Brazil for soybean supplies at this time of the year while recent market movements on forward physical deliveries and the U.S. dollar weakening should favor the U.S. beans in other importing countries. Our U.S. export forecast is thus barely changed at 48.8 million tons for 2024/25, up 2.6 million tons against 2023/24. 2024/25 U.S. ending stocks are expected to reach a 5-year high due to last year’s production gains and resulting larger supply. For the next marketing year, we expect U.S. farmers to reduce soybean plantings in favor of corn to both benefit from higher potential margins and manage the risks of this new trade war with China. The 2025/26 U.S. soybean exportable supplies could yet remain substantial, which would thus lead to a surge in the ending stocks in lack of Chinese buyers. U.S. soybean competitiveness to all destination but China should increase in 2025/26 against the last marketing years, while Brazil will benefit from the US-China trade wars with firmer Chinese demand and bargaining power for price negotiation.

Alternatively, should the trade tensions between the U.S. and China ease, China would increase imports of the U.S. agricultural products to reduce the trade deficits. Given the expectation of reduced soybean acreage, U.S. soybean prices could soar on firm demand and tight supply.

U.S. soybean export sales to China have so far remained strong with 640,916 tons for the latest week March 27- April 3, accounting for 76% of total sales for the week. Soybean deliveries to China have also been progressing in a rapid pace. The U.S. delivered 1.926 million tons of soybeans to China in March, a 25% increase from the month earlier, due to worries on the trade tensions and the affordable prices. Accumulated exports to China during Sep-Mar totaled 22.2 million tons, compared to 23.8 million tons for the prior season. The strong U.S. soybean sales to China are expected to pause after April 10 when the 34% tariffs on U.S. products come into effect.

Brazil soybean exports during the first two months of 2024/25 (Feb-Mar) reached an all-time high at 21.1 million tons, 1.9 million tons above the previous record set in 2023/24, according to Brazil government agency. Total 2024/25 soybean exports estimate was reduced slightly to 109.3 million tons from our previous estimate upon adverse weather and smaller production output in Rio Grande do Sul.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 3/4 in SRW, up 7 1/2 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 5 3/4; Soymeal up $1.70; Soyoil down 0.08.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 11 1/2 in SRW, up 11 3/4 in HRW, up 23 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 13 1/2; Soybeans up 39 1/4; Soymeal up $12.00; Soyoil up 0.08.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 8 in SRW, up 17 3/4 in HRW, up 18 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 19 1/2; Soybeans up 3 3/4; Soymeal up $3.50; Soyoil up 1.13.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.0% in SRW, up 1.8% in HRW, up 2.1% in HRS; Corn is up 3.5%; Soybeans up 1.8%; Soymeal down 4.1%; Soyoil up 15.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 28 yuan; Soymeal down 40; Soyoil up 34; Palm oil up 52; Corn down 8 — Malaysian Palm is up 53.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 53 ringgit (+1.28%) at 4201.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 459 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 9 were: SRW Wheat down 5,908 contracts, HRW Wheat down 7,632, Corn down 22,191, Soybeans down 16,498, Soymeal down 15,197, Soyoil down 4,481.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 10 April 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: The latest SMAP data update confirms a major shift in soil moisture conditions across the Midwest after the recent rains, a favorable trend ahead of the spring crop season.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Brazil’s second-corn areas should continue to receive ample rain during most of April.
• AUSTRALIA: Warmth and dryness will facilitate the wheat/rapeseed planting campaign over the next 15 days
• BLACK SEA: Below-normal rains in Ukraine and Southern Russia in mid-April will exacerbate soil moisture deficits and affect winter wheat development

 

WET SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL WHILE ARGENTINA REMAINS DRY

What to Watch:

• Dry weather in the Pampas, favorable to corn harvesting
• Isolated wet spells in Central Brazil

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers are passing through some areas Wednesday and a system is likely to bring scattered showers this weekend. Recent precipitation has been improving soil moisture in many areas, but long-term drought remains a problem heading into the season. There are still some chances going forward for an active pattern to bring more rainfall, but an active pattern hasn’t meant enough to eliminate drought. Spring planting will be increasing, though temperature swings could cause some to pause a bit and wait for more consistent warmth.

Central/Southern Plains: Dry conditions continue this week with rising temperatures, favorable for fieldwork and planting, but not wheat development. Isolated showers are possible this weekend and next week, but forecasts are not very consistent and do not suggest large amounts of rain that some areas still need.

Midwest: Heavy rain has produced widespread, intense flooding across the southern end of the region. That will pause thoughts of fieldwork for a while as it takes a long time to drain fields and local rivers from flood stage. A small disturbance will bring through some showers over the next couple of days. Most areas will see little to no rain, but some streaks of moderate rain will unfortunately fall in some of these wet areas. Overall below normal rainfall through next week, even with a couple of systems moving through, should be more beneficial for draining soils. Temperatures will continue to fluctuate quite a bit though, and may give some pause for doing fieldwork or planting until more consistent warmth settles in.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Recent heavy rain across the north will make for areas of extreme wetness and flooding for a while. Draining these areas will take a long time. Some showers will move through northern areas over the next couple of days and some additional showers will be possible with a couple of systems next week, but below-normal precipitation should overall aid the draining process. Fieldwork will be slow to recover and some replanting will have to be done due to the flooding.

 

The player sheet for 4/9 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 7,500 corn, buyers of 11,500 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 6,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 198,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for shipment to undisclosed destinations in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• BARLEY SALE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender seeking up to 120,000 tons on Wednesday
• DURUM WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased durum wheat in an international tender on Tuesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

 PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDERS: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice that closed on March 27 was estimated at $416.44 a metric ton CIF liner out
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending April 3.

• Corn est. range 700k – 1,500k tons, with avg of 1,000k
• Soybean est. range 200k – 700k tons, with avg of 400k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.6% to 27.034M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 26.597 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.021m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.041m

 

Trump Puts 90-Day Pause on Higher Tariffs, But Hikes China Rates

President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs that hit dozens of trade partners after midnight, while raising duties on China to 125%.

The president’s about-face came roughly 13 hours after high duties on 56 nations and the European Union took effect, fueling market turmoil and stoking recession fears. Trump faced massive pressure from business leaders and investors to reverse course.

“I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday when asked why he backed off. “They were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.”

The new tariff rates took effect at 12:01am Washington time on April 10, according to a customs guidance released late Wednesday, and the 125% levy on China specifies that it’s inclusive of Hong Kong and Macau.

Stocks staged their best rally since 2008 as euphoria gripped markets after Trump’s abrupt announcement. The S&P 500 Index soared 9.5%, rebounding from bear-market territory. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 surged 12%. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists rescinded their forecast for a US recession.

“We’re having a good day in the stock market, as you can see, all-time, record day and hopefully it continues,” the president said later in the Oval Office.

 

Argentina exchange hikes 2024/25 corn crop forecast, cuts soybean

Argentina’s 2024/25 corn crop is now estimated at 48.5 million metric tons, up from a prior forecast of 44.5 million tons, the Rosario Grains Exchange said on Wednesday.

The exchange trimmed its 2024/25 soybean harvest forecast to 45.5 million metric tons, compared to the 46.5 million tons previously estimated.

 

Strike halts grain ship traffic at Argentina’s Rosario ports

Grain and agro-industrial products ships will be unable to dock or leave Argentina’s Rosario agro-port hub on Thursday because of a CGT union strike against government policies, the head of the private port chamber CAPyM said.

The CGT’s action, which brings together numerous unions in the country, will start at midnight on Thursday (0300 GMT), and last 24 hours.

“We will not be able to dock and moor the ships,” Guillermo Wade, manager of the Chamber of Port and Maritime Activities, told Reuters, citing the strike by the Maritime Workers Union and the river navigators’ union.

Ships already moored in ports will be able to load grains and their derivatives, but vessels will not be able to set sail, Wade added.

The two soybean oil plant workers’ unions on Tuesday said they would also join the strike called by the CGT, which rejects the austerity measures of the government of libertarian President Javier Milei.

Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and meal, the third-largest exporter of corn, and a major supplier of wheat.

 

Russia’s IKAR says Russia’s winter grain crops’ state improved

Russia’s winter crops are in relatively good condition, contrary to earlier estimates, IKAR consultancy said on Wednesday, flagging the possibility of raising the grain harvest forecast for this year.

IKAR sees the 2025 grain harvest at 129.5 million metric tons, above the 126 million tons gathered last year, when crops were hit by bad weather. The wheat harvest is seen by IKAR at 82.5 million tons in a baseline scenario.

“There is a possibility that we will raise this estimate,” IKAR’s head Dmitry Rylko told a conference in Moscow.

“The record uncertainty about the state of the harvest has transformed into a rather decent one today, and in some regions, into an excellent one. However, more rainfall is still needed,” Rylko said.

The agriculture ministry’s analytical centre said on April 8 that after an unusually warm winter, the overall crop loss rate did not exceed 3% across the country despite reports late last year that at least 37% of winter crops were in poor condition.

 

Brazil seeks to maintain single-digit interest rates for farm credit program, says minister

The Brazilian government will seek to keep interest rates at the single-digit level for the next 2025/26 farm credit program Plano Safra, Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said on Wednesday, even while the country’s benchmark interest rate is at 14.25%.

Favaro also told journalists in Brasilia he believes that Brazilian retail food prices will fall further.

 

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 13.3 mln metric tons in April – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 13.3 MILLION METRIC TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 13.5 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.3 MILLION TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 2.1 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR

 

Rapid harvest progress bodes well for Brazil soybean production

2024/25 BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 169.3 [167.6–171.0] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Brazil soybean production is unchanged at 169.3 [167.6–171.0] million tons as the harvest season looks to wrap up in few weeks amid rapid overall progress thanks to recent and expected warm/dry weather. Our current position is slightly above both the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 169 million tons (released on 11 March) and the Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB)’s 167.4 million tons (released on 13 March). As of 06 April, Brazil’s soybeans were 85.3% combined nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (released on 07 April), far ahead of last year’s pace of 76.4% and the 5-year average of 82.4%. Harvests are nearing completion well ahead of schedule in most top producing regions including Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, and Goiás. Some near to above normal rains are expected across the Southeast and portions of the Central-West through next week, but should not hinder the late season activities.

 

Brazil Safrinha corn enters prime growth period amid lack of moisture

2024/25 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 124.2 [121.1–127.3] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Continued lack of precipitation amid warm weather and overall poor soil moisture conditions across core Safrinha crop areas of the southern Central-West, the Southeast and the South fractionally lower 2024/25 Brazil total corn production to 124.2 [121.1–127.3] million tons, as the first crop season comes to a close and the second crop enters its prime growth period on schedule. Wetter days are ahead amid improving short-term weather outlooks, however, warranting attention. Our current position is below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 126 million tons (released on 11 March), but above the Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB)’s 122.8 million tons (released on 13 March).

With sowings nearly complete, the past two weeks brought more warm conditions to Brazil’s major second crop producing regions. Except for portions of Paraná and São Paulo, temperatures remained well above average, with extremes nearing 4 °C above normal in Goiás. In terms of rainfall, essentially all crop areas of the Central-West and the Southeast saw below average totals, with some of the driest weather observed in Goiás and areas to the north. Some parts of the South, Paraná in particular, received a long awaited near normal precipitation up to 70 mm in total, though the amount was far from sufficient to recharge soil moisture storage there. Most top Safrinha crop producing provinces (e.g. Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, São Paulo, and Paraná) except for Mato Grosso are currently showing at least 6-year low soil moisture levels, increasing concerns as the sowing season ends and the growing season begins. While Mato Grosso’s relatively positive yield outlooks may limit any significant national-level yield losses in the short-term, severe soil moisture deficits throughout the rest of the second corn regions should not be taken lightly, as combined they could offset the upside from Mato Grosso. As of 06 April, Brazil’s first corn was 59.2% harvested and second corn 99.1% planted nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (released on 07 April), both of which are now largely back on track overcoming early season delays and now on par with/ahead of the five-year averages of 54.8% and 99.4%, respectively. Fortunately, wetter conditions are in the forecast through next week, which should work favorably for growing crops, but warmth is likely to remain in place, warranting attention.

 

Pakistan Seen Buying More Wheat as Dryness Hurts Crop: USDA FAS

Pakistan’s wheat imports in the 2025-26 season, which begins in May, are expected to climb to 1.7m tons, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in a note.

• That would be up from 100,000 tons in the prior year, although below 2023-24
  • NOTE: In past seasons, Pakistan often issued tenders to purchase the grain
• The increase in imports comes as wheat production is expected to drop to 27.5m tons, down 13% y/y
  • Plantings declined and “extremely dry weather” has hampered crop prospects, the report says

 

Palm oil stocks rise 3.52% m/m to 1.56 million tons in March

• Output rises 16.76% m/m to 1.39 million tons
• Exports edge up 0.91% m/m to 1.01 million tons
• Imports surge 82.5% to 121,886 tons, highest in 21 months

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks posted their first rise in six months in March, as production recovered and imports rose sharply, offsetting strong festive demand, data from the industry regulator showed on Thursday.

Palm oil stocks at the end of March rose 3.52% from February to 1.56 million tons, marking the first increase since September, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said.

Malaysia’s crude palm oil production rose 16.76% last month from February to 1.39 million tons, the first increase in three months, while palm oil exports rose 0.91% to 1.01 million tons, the MPOB said.

A Reuters survey had forecast inventories at 1.56 million tons, with output seen at 1.31 million tons and exports at 1.02 million tons.

Palm oil imports surged 82.5% to 121,886 tons in March, the highest since June 2023, due to strong demand during Ramadan and as some producers sought to fulfill export commitments by importing from Indonesia.

“Indonesia’s export levies were lower in March, so it made sense to bring in Indonesian palm oil, especially with Malaysia’s stock running low,” said a New Delhi-based trader with a global trade house.

Malaysia’s palm oil consumption in March rose to 453,046 tons from 328,591 tons a month ago, MPOB data showed.

Exports in March were the lowest for the month since 2006, as palm oil’s premium over soyoil prompted buyers to purchase more soyoil, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.

“But now, palm oil’s premium over soyoil is shrinking. That’s bringing buyers back to palm oil, which could keep prices up, unless production jumps sharply from April onward,” Bagani said.

 

A WARM AND DRY OUTLOOK THROUGH MID-MONTH IN AUSTRALIA WILL FACILITATE CROP PLANTINGS

What to Watch:

• Widespread warmth is overtaking Australia and will remain in place for a couple weeks before conditions may cool again
• Most of the continent will remain dry until late April, though Queensland will be a notable exception where rains will be plentiful
• The prevalence of warmth and dryness in the near term forecast will support early wheat/rapeseed planting progress except in Queensland

 

US Weighs Farmer Bailout as China Threatens Retaliation

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the administration is considering plans to offer assistance to farmers amid worries that the US-China trade war will have a disastrous effect on American agricultural producers.

China announced plans to increase tariffs on all American goods to 84% after President Donald Trump raised duties on Chinese imports to 104%. During a smaller trade fight with Beijing during Trump’s first term, his administration used the Commodity Credit Corporation to offer $28 billion to bail out US farmers. The government-owned and operated entity was created to boost farm income and prices.

“We are looking at that again,” Rollins told Bloomberg News Wednesday at the White House. “Obviously everything is on the table, but we’re in such a period of uncertainty in terms of what this looks like.”

The Agriculture secretary said, however, that no decisions have been made on whether to extend financial assistance to farmers.

“The goal is we won’t need to do it at all, that these changes and the realignment of the economy will result in an unprecedented air of prosperity for all Americans, but especially for our farmers and our ranchers,” Rollins said.

 

 

 

 

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