Global Ag News for Apr 17.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Montana Renewables CEO Calls for Doubling in Plant-Diesel Quotas

The US needs to roughly double its quotas for biomass-based diesel to help support the industry and sustain momentum for investments in green jet fuel, according to Montana Renewables Chief Executive Officer Bruce Fleming.

The Biden administration set quotas for bio and renewable diesel, generally made from soybean oil and other fats, at just over 3 billion gallons for blending into US fuels for 2025. Now, as the Trump administration is set to review the policy for the next several years, Fleming and others in the industry are calling for higher quotas based on production capacity.

“How about you get it to 7.3 billion gallons? Because the industry can do that,” said Fleming.

Last month, trade groups including Clean Fuels Alliance America and the American Soybean Association urged the Trump administration to set the 2026 renewable volume obligation, or RVO, for biomass-based diesel at 5.25 billion gallons. That’s still too low, according to Fleming.

“We are all praying the Trump EPA fixes it,” Fleming said in an interview last week from the sidelines of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Farm, Food & Fuel Summit.

Montana Renewables, a maker of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, is a unit of Calumet Inc.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/2 in SRW, up 4 1/4 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil down 0.03.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 7 3/4 in SRW, down 6 3/4 in HRW, down 8 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/2; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal down $0.90; Soyoil up 0.13.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 12 in SRW, up 6 1/2 in HRW, up 13 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 27 1/4; Soybeans up 22 3/4; Soymeal up $5.60; Soyoil up 2.58.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 0.4% in SRW, up 0.6% in HRW, up 2.1% in HRS; Corn is up 5.3%; Soybeans up 4.2%; Soymeal down 3.2%; Soyoil up 19.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 10 yuan; Soymeal down 19; Soyoil up 24; Palm oil up 36; Corn down 4 — Malaysian Palm is up 1.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 1 ringgit (+0.02%) at 4016.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 360 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,170 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 16 were: SRW Wheat down 4,387 contracts, HRW Wheat down 6,766, Corn down 17,740, Soybeans down 5,359, Soymeal up 6,440, Soyoil up 826.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 16 APRIL 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Temperatures will fluctuate along the U.S. Plains and Midwest into late April, but a consensus has formed for widespread warmth to build over the final week of the month to the benefit of crop progress
• SOUTH AMERICA: Favorable rains are in store for Brazil 2nd crop corn through the next 1-2 weeks in a favorable outlook, but it will not erase long-term deficits that have impacted the crop already
• AFRICA: Dry weather will prevail through the next 10-15 days along the coffee regions of Ethiopia, but it will have minimal impacts on the crop due to prior rains
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Persistent, but moderately high rainfall into the foreseeable future will continue to support upside for Indonesia/Malaysia palm oil regions

 

SOUTH AMERICA WEATHER UPDATE FOR 16 APRIL 2025

What to Watch:

• Heavy rainfall in parts of Brazil
• Dry conditions to prevail across Argentina

 

Northern Plains: Though the weather pattern has been active and soil moisture has improved in a lot of areas, long-term drought still remains across much of the region and will not go away easily. Another system moving through later this week could bring some showers, but next week could favor better chances for multiple rounds of showers. While temperatures are riding a roller coaster through the rest of this week, they should trend below normal next week, which may delay the rising of soil temperatures and planting.

Central/Southern Plains: The conditions for planting have been favorable, but with temperatures like summer across the south, it has not been favorable for developing winter wheat. The region should start to get more active again later this week and this weekend with a couple of systems moving through. Southwestern areas that have been somewhat drier lately need to see more rain and they may get it with a system that comes through this weekend, which is targeting this area with moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms. The pattern next week also looks favorable for bringing more rain chances through the region, but temperatures could remain on the warmer side in southern areas.

Midwest: Lighter showers earlier this week mainly stayed north and allowed for some fieldwork progress farther south. Another system later this week should bring more widespread rain chances and the threat for severe thunderstorms. More systems are forecast for the late weekend and next week, keeping the region very active. Wet areas across the south are going to have many chances for bringing more water through, delaying planting and drowning winter wheat. Limited areas of drought across the northwest will have opportunity for further reduction. Temperatures will continue to swing with systems moving through but could level out closer to average next week.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: The past few days have been on the drier side, allowing for better conditions to drain excessive water out of soils. Flooding along the Mississippi will take a lot of time to be reduced. A more active weather pattern this weekend and next week could create further flood conditions and limit potential for fieldwork, causing delays and potential damage.

Europe: More moisture is still needed for winter wheat in the northwest. Several systems will move through over the next two weeks which should provide some beneficial rainfall for much of the continent. Temperatures will generally be above normal through this active period, with the exception of Spain and Portugal, which will be closer to average. The warmer temperatures favor developing winter wheat as well as rising soil temperatures for spring planting. However, the wetter forecast could make planting a slow process.

Black Sea: Above normal temperatures are expected to expand through this week and next week. The Caucasus have received some beneficial rainfall over the past few days, but it was confined to a smaller area. Systems regularly moving through Europe will lose a lot of their moisture as they move into Ukraine and western Russia, providing only limited and spotty showers through early next week. The lower precipitation forecast is not favorable for much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia that are still trying to recover from long-term drought.

Australia: Soils have more moisture for winter wheat and canola planting after recent rains in western areas. Northeastern areas have seen some drier weather after heavy rain, creating mostly favorable conditions as well. The southeast has been much drier and is in need of some rain. The southeast should get some rainfall later this weekend into early next week. But northeastern areas may start to get too dry again with little rainfall in the forecast for the rest of the month.

 

The player sheet for 4/16 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,000 corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• MILLING WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has bought an estimated 570,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• SOFT MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 75,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat
• CORN, BARLEY AND SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday.
• PHILIPPINES BUYS AUSTRALIAN WHEAT: An importer in the Philippines is, on Friday, believed to have bought an unknown volume of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia.

 PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: The offer deadline in an international tender from a state grains buyer in Syria to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat has been amended to April 21.

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.8% to 26.814M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 26.803 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.012m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.004m

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending April 10.

• Corn est. range 800k – 1,800k tons, with avg of 1,033k
• Soybean est. range 300k – 900k tons, with avg of 586k

 

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates April 16: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• No changes to 2024-25 corn, soybean production
• Corn harvest advanced to 28% complete vs 23% in the previous week

 

Argentina Soy Harvest Is 26 Percentage Points Slower Than Usual

Farmers have harvested just 4.9% of soy acreage, trailing the usual completion rate for this time of year by 26 percentage points, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly estimates report.

• NOTE: Usual rate for this time of year calculated as an average of the previous five seasons
• NOTE: Rains in Argentina Delay Soybean Harvesting
• In the prime “zona nucleo” region, yields are coming in higher than expected
  • Meanwhile, beans planted later are growing with optimal moisture levels
  • Soy forecast kept at 48.6m metric tons

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Drop 35% Y/y During Season to April 13

EU soft-wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 16.7m tons as of April 13, compared with 25.7m tons for the same period last year, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Nigeria with 2.33m tons, Morocco with 2.25m tons and Algeria with 1.36m tons
• Barley exports were at 4.05m tons, down 19% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 16.5m tons, up 14% y/y

 

FranceAgriMer cuts 2024/25 non-EU soft wheat export forecast

Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday lowered its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2024/25 to 3.1 million metric tons from 3.2 million projected last month, now 70% below last season’s level.

In a supply and demand outlook, the office raised its forecast for French soft wheat shipments within the EU this season to 6.42 million tons from 6.28 million expected in December, now 2% above the 2023/24 volume.

Soft wheat stocks at the end of the season were projected at 2.81 million tons compared with 2.91 million forecast last month and 12% below last season’s level.

 

Overall favorable late April weather to bode well for U.S. wheat production

2025/26 U.S. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION: 36.4 [34.5–38.2] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Outlooks for 2025/26 U.S. winter wheat planted area and production remain unchanged at 33.4 million acres and 36.4 [34.5–38.2] million tons, respectively, with little spring freeze risks ahead amid favorable warm weather, though overall low soil moisture levels across some key hard red winter (HRW) wheat crop areas of the Central/Northern Plains and the soft red winter (SRW) wheat belt remain a concern.

As the winter wheat crop begins to green up and moves into booting/heading stages, any abrupt changes in temperature will need to be monitored closely through late April and early May. Forecasted temperature anomalies for next week are expected to be generally warmer than normal across much of the HRW wheat regions through the eastern SRW wheat belt. Both EC/GFS model guidance indicates a major warm up during mid/late April, relieving spring freeze concerns at the moment. While short-term outlooks appear to be optimistic, uncertainty remains for the long term, with potential for a false spring and premature crop development. If a warm March/early April was to be followed by sudden cold temperatures, spring freeze risk could be elevated due to crops being pulled out of dormancy earlier than expected. Any wheat reaching the jointing stage could be at risk if overnight temperatures were to drop below 24 °F for two hours or more. The result could be moderate to severe freeze damage as the growing point of the crop emerges from the soil exposing it to cold temperatures. While this particular risk appears to be low at the moment, continued monitoring should be warranted.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress (14 April) indicates overall slightly worse winter wheat crop conditions compared to the same time last year, with 47% of the crop in good or excellent (GEX) condition (vs. 48% last week and 55% last year). While the current conditions seem less than ideal, the overall ratings are better than expected considering all the potential winterkill events and soil moisture deficits that have highlighted the crop’s dormancy period during the winter. Looking ahead, much wetter weather is in the forecast in the coming days, which should provide some much needed moisture for the dry areas.

 

Argentina corn production slightly up as steady harvest progress continues

2024/25 ARGENTINA CORN PRODUCTION: 48.8 [45.9–51.7] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Updated weather and early harvest conditions slightly (<1%) increase 2024/25 Argentina corn production to 48.8 [45.9–51.7] million tons, as a recovery continues to take place after several excessive moisture events that have hampered key crop areas of the Pampas throughout the month of March. In April’s WASDE report (released on 10 April), USDA placed Argentina corn production at 50 million tons, unchanged from its previous projection in March. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 49 and 48.5 million tons, respectively. Argentina’s core crop regions saw a volatile weather pattern over the past 30 days, with some torrential rains that lingered through late March followed by the arrival of dry weather early April. Moderate wetness returned to southern portions of the Pampas this week. While recent precipitation events since early April were fairly widespread throughout the main Pampas region, the total amount was much more modest/sporadic than weeks ago, not enough to hinder the ongoing late season activities. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of 10 April, corn harvest was 22% complete nationally, slightly ahead of last year’s 20%. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires also reported progress of 23.1%, suggesting a stable early harvest progress so far. With the prime harvest season in full swing, overall precipitation patterns should be monitored closely.

 

EU-27+UK rapeseed production remains unchanged amid mixed weather conditions

2025/26 EU-27 + UK RAPESEED PRODUCTION: 19.9 [18.9-20.9] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent mixed weather conditions keep 2025/26 EU-27 + UK rapeseed production unchanged at 19.9 [18.9-20.9] million tons (mmt), but drought risk remains.

The last two weeks featured mixed weather patterns across Europe, with warmer temperatures in Western Europe and cooler temperatures in the central and eastern parts. Above normal precipitation (8-22 mm) occurred only in Spain, Poland, and Bulgaria. Soil moisture levels have improved in Bulgaria, in contrast to Poland and Germany, where soil moisture levels are currently at a 6-year low, posing risk for rapeseed yields formation in the upcoming months.

According to the latest weather forecast, a mixed weather pattern will prevail across Europe over the next two weeks with lower temperatures in Western and Northern Europe and, abovenormal temperatures in Central and Eastern Europe. Rainfall will occur in Spain, France, Germany, and parts of Poland. The extended weather forecast predicts cool and wet weather across the continent in the last week of April, which may help alleviate the previous dryness and restore water reserves in the drought affected areas in Germany and Poland.

 

Argentina converts 4% of corn into ethanol, while Brazil converts more than 13% and the United States 35%.

The bioethanol industry reached new highs in 2024. “Record production with the recovery of sugarcane-based ethanol and good records for corn-based ethanol. Argentina converts less than 4% of its corn harvest into ethanol, compared to more than 13% in Brazil and 35% in the United States”, detailed a report from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) prepared by Guido D’Angelo and Julio Calzada.

The 6 corn-based bioethanol plants and the 11 sugarcane-based bioethanol plants produced 1.21 million cubic meters in 2024. Thus, in 2024, ethanol production broke records, growing by 4% compared to 2023 and marking the highest bioethanol volume on record.

The recovery of sugarcane production allowed a 26% jump in the production of ethanol based on this input. Meanwhile, a 6% cut in corn-based ethanol production reduced the production jump in 2024. Even so, corn ethanol production last year was the second highest on record.

In this sense, it should be noted that ethanol in Argentina has two production epicenters: the province of Córdoba for corn ethanol and the NOA for sugarcane ethanol, with Tucumán, Salta and Jujuy playing a leading role.

Santa Fe and San Luis also emerge as provinces with corn ethanol production. Averaging the last five years, 60% of the country’s bioethanol was produced from corn, while the remaining 40% was produced from sugarcane; a distribution similar to that observed in 2024.

With a significantly lower carbon footprint than fossil fuels, the development of biofuels such as bioethanol contributes to Argentina’s economic development. While adding value to the crops produced in the country, bioethanol production mitigates greenhouse gas emissions and generates production and employment at federal level.

The pandemic had an enormous impact on the biofuels industry, reducing the demand for gasoline and leading the bioethanol industry to operate at idle levels of over 35%. However, once the effects of the pandemic had passed, production efficiency, compliance with quotas and the recovery of fuel consumption reduced the industry’s idle capacity, currently standing at around 16%.

Thus, if the development of bioethanol in Argentina were to be further boosted, we would firstly find that the industry’s idle capacity would be reduced. This, in turn, would result in greater industrialization of Argentine corn and sugar. Furthermore, Argentina’s energy matrix would be more environmentally sustainable and would generate more industries for bioethanol production in different regions of the country.

In addition, there is a wide range of initiatives that can encourage the use of biofuels and bioinputs in Argentina: the promotion of biomethane and biogas, the progress in the flex motorization of the automotive fleet, the expansion of carbon markets, the certification of biomass products, among others.

As an example of these initiatives, we highlight that the province of Cordoba has its Master Plan for the Migration from the use of Fossil Fuels to Biofuels. Within this framework, E17 or 17% corn-based bioethanol blend tests have been carried out for public sector vehicles.

Not only that, there are experiences in that province that incorporate a flex adaptation in the engines of several public fleet vehicles that allow them to run on 70% bioethanol, or E70.

In addition to the progressive development of electromobility, the adoption of flex cars, with more bioethanol cut, implies a lower infrastructure cost and a promotion of the added value of Argentine crops.

The agro-industrial advantage of Brazil and the United States

Brazil and the United States, ranked first and second among the world’s largest corn exporters, are also at the forefront in the development of ethanol based on this fundamental crop. Between them, these two countries account for 80% of global ethanol production. However, while in the United States, corn is the protagonist in ethanol production, in Brazil most ethanol is obtained from sugarcane.

In Brazil, more than 325 million tons of sugarcane and 15 million tons of corn were used to produce ethanol in 2024. Although the volume of corn may seem small in relation to the volume of sugarcane used, it is important to note that this tonnage is equivalent to around 13% of the Brazilian corn harvest, industrialized for ethanol production and export.

Not only that, it is expected that the mandatory bioethanol blend in naphtha will increase to 30% before the end of the first half of 2025 in Brazil. Since 2016, the cut-off rate has been 27%.

There are 25 corn ethanol plants in production in Brazil, while 10 more have already been authorized for construction or are under construction. In addition, another 20 plants are planned, according to data from the Brazilian National Corn Ethanol Union (UNEM). The corn ethanol production epicenter in Brazil is located in Mato Grosso.

There are 198 bioethanol plants already installed in the United States, and 49 are currently under construction or in the process of expansion.

The North American power converts more than one third of its corn crop into ethanol year after year. As in Argentina and Brazil, ethanol production is concentrated in U.S. corn producing regions. Iowa, Minnesotta, Nebraska are the states with the largest number of ethanol producing plants, among other states in the American corn belt.

The United States grew 36% in ethanol exports in 2024, marking a new historical maximum for this product.

The US bioethanol chain exports to destinations as diverse as Canada, the United Kingdom, Colombia, the EU, India and South Korea, among others.

 

 

 

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