Global Ag News for Apr 29.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China’s Zhoushan port to see 48% jump in Brazilian soybean ships in April, state media reports

Around 40 Brazilian soybean ships are expected to have docked at China’s Zhoushan port in April, up 48% from last year, a social media account affiliated with the state broadcaster reported on Monday, as China shuns U.S. suppliers in an escalating trade war.

The account, Yuyuantantian, said the port is projected to unload a total of 700,000 metric tons of Brazilian soybeans this month, a 32% increase.

China has in recent years reduced reliance on U.S. beans while buying more from Brazil.

In March, China imposed 10% levies on imports of U.S. soybeans after U.S. President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on Chinese goods.

Beijing has since announced additional 125% tariffs on all imports from the U.S. in response to Trump’s hefty reciprocal duties, accelerating a Chinese shift towards alternative suppliers such as Brazil, which is expected to boost China’s second-quarter soybean imports to an overall record high.

China bought only 1,800 tons of soybeans from the U.S. in the week ended April 17, after 72,800 tons in the week ended April 10, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, up 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 3 1/2; Soymeal down $0.10; Soyoil down 0.51.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 12 3/4 in SRW, down 11 in HRW, down 7 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans down 1/4; Soymeal down $2.70; Soyoil up 0.14.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 18 1/4 in SRW, down 30 in HRW, down 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 18 1/2; Soybeans up 30 3/4; Soymeal down $3.60; Soyoil up 4.56.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.3% in SRW, down 6.0% in HRW, up 1.2% in HRS; Corn is up 3.5%; Soybeans up 5.1%; Soymeal down 6.7%; Soyoil up 24.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 41 yuan; Soymeal down 21; Soyoil down 28; Palm oil down 100; Corn up 7 — Malaysian Palm is down 22.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 22 ringgit (-0.55%) at 3943.

There were changes in registrations (-33 Corn). Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 190 Corn; 360 Soybeans; 1,359 Soyoil; 1,170 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 28 were: SRW Wheat down 9,292 contracts, HRW Wheat up 732, Corn down 81,751, Soybeans down 43,610, Soymeal down 38,848, Soyoil down 10,315.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 28 APRIL 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warmth remains anticipated across most of North America through two weeks, barring few brief/minor spells of regional cool weather
• SOUTH AMERICA: Very dry weather is expected in Southern Brazil and the far northeast of the country through the next 10 days, while wet weather is likely in east-central parts of the country
• EUROPE: Significant warmth is expected across nearly all of Europe through 5 days, before widespread cold weather takes hold of Northern Europe during the 6-15 day period
• SOUTH ASIA: Widespread cool anomalies between 2-4 °C below normal are expected across most of India during the next 10-15 days

 

WET SPELLS EXPECTED IN THE PAMPAS AND NORTHEAST ARGENTINA, WHILE BRAZIL REMAINS DRY

What to Watch:

• Wet weather in the Pampas and Northeast  Argentina, unfavorable to corn harvesting
• Dry weather in Brazil

FORECAST

Discussion: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will develop into a Phase 7-8  event near the end of the 15-day forecast. The Antarctic Oscillation is likely  to develop into a positive phase and will support dry weather across Southern Brazil.  On EC/GFS numerical model performance, the EC has outperformed the GFS over the  past month.

Argentina/Paraguay: Warm temperatures (2-5 °C above normal) are expected across the Argentina during the 10-day  forecast and then cool weather will arrive in the 11-15-day outlook. Isolated  wet spells (10-60 mm below normal) are expected across the Pampas and Northeast  Argentina during the during the 15-day outlook. Wet weather may delay soybeans/corn harvesting  across the Pampas belts.

Brazil: Warm temperatures  (1-4 °C above normal) will  prevail across Brazil during the 15-day outlook. Dry (10-55 mm below normal) is expected across Brazil except far  Southeast (10-70 mm above normal) during the 15-day outlook. Dry weather may favor the 1st corn/soybeans/coffee harvesting and may be a concern for 2nd corn growth across Brazil’s belts.

Northern Plains: Some isolated showers moved into the region over the weekend, but were more explosive later Sunday. That continues Monday, creating some areas of heavy rain and possible severe weather. Another system will move into the region this weekend, likely bringing more scattered showers into next week. The current and forecast rainfall could improve drought in some areas, but also cause wet conditions and delays to planting.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers moved through over the weekend and continue on Monday with a system moving through. The system will cause a front to get stalled across the south, where showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday and some additional showers may be possible across southern areas on Friday. More rainfall is forecast with another system moving into the region over the weekend. The rainfall is helping to ease drought conditions and build soil moisture, but may be causing some delays to planting. Producers likely welcome the rain, even if it causes some delays.

Midwest: Some showers moved through over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry, allowing some to dry out enough to get some fieldwork in. A significant storm system will move through Monday and Tuesday, with widespread showers and severe weather. The front will continue showers through parts of the region through Friday, especially across the wetter south. Some additional showers will be possible next week as an upper-level trough slowly moves eastward through the region. Western areas are likely to be wetter than eastern areas, which may get a chance to dry out and get some fieldwork in.

Delta: Scattered showers went through over the weekend, and many areas remain pretty wet, causing difficult fieldwork conditions. The Mississippi River is still flooded south of Memphis, causing some travel restrictions. A front will move into the region on Tuesday and linger for much of the week, causing periods of showers and thunderstorms that may turn out to be severe and create some heavy rain to exacerbate the wet conditions.

Europe: Scattered showers went through over the weekend, but missed the northeast again, which has become much drier. The front half of the week will be dry, but western areas will see a system slowly move in and a front will sag south over eastern areas late this week. Eastern areas are favored to see rainfall continuing next week as well, which could help to moisten up some drier areas.

Black Sea: A front moved through over the weekend with some limited showers and colder temperatures. Temperatures will waffle a bit this week, but drier conditions are not going to be very favorable. A front will move through this weekend into early next week that may bring more widespread showers. Soil moisture continues to be very limited across much of the region and more moisture is needed soon for developing wheat and emerging corn.

Australia: Scattered showers moved through New South Wales over the weekend, which was needed for some drier spots where winter wheat and canola are being planted. But many areas around the country are still dry and in need of some rain. Showers will be limited across the country this week, favoring western and eastern coastal areas later this week and weekend. More inland areas will need the rain, however.

The player sheet for 4/28 had funds: net sellers of 7,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Argentina, Brazil or South Africa.

 

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal-feed corn
• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal-feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Tuesday
• RICE TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria is still considering price offers in an international tender to buy about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat which closed this week with no purchase yet made.

TODAY

US Inspected 1.655m Tons of Corn for Export, 439k of Soybeans

In week ending April 24, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 439k tons vs 560k the previous wk, 276k a yr ago
• Wheat: 647k tons vs 510k the previous wk, 503k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,655k tons vs 1,726k the previous wk, 1,298k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: April 24

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending April 24 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 205k tons of the 439k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, South Korea led in wheat

China aims to slash grain and soybean meal use in livestock feed by 2030

Grain use in China’s total feed consumption is expected to fall to around 60% by 2030, with soybean meal usage reduced to about 10%, the agriculture ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.

The ministry also expects a more than 7% drop in feed consumption per kilogram of animal products in standardised large-scale farming by 2030, compared to 2023, according to the statement.

WHEAT/CEPEA: Planting progresses in Paraná; uncertainties about area in BR persist

Producers in the north of Paraná state have been planting the new season of wheat, although activities are moving at a slow pace. Despite the fact that prices are attractive for farmers, uncertainties about the area that will be planted in Brazil persist – for the time being, official estimates indicate a decrease. Moreover, the weather has been leading many producers to prioritize other crops.

Data from Seab/Deral indicate that 2% of the area in Paraná had been planted up to April 22. The area is now estimated at 886.7 thousand hectares, 22% smaller than in the crop before (1.13 million hectares). The output, however, is still expected to increase 24%, at 2.85 million tons, because of the higher productivity (+56%), of 3.2 tons per hectare.

As for the spot market, wheat mills claim to have stocks. Purchasers close deals only to meet immediate demands. Some sellers, in turn, aim to sell off remaining stocks from the previous crop, while others prioritize soy and corn trades.

According to data from Cepea, between April 17 and 25, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) remained stable in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, but decreased 0.54% in Santa Catarina. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values upped 0.7% in Paraná and 0.15% in Rio Grande do Sul, but moved down 0.24% in Santa Catarina and remained stable in São Paulo (-0.04%). Dollar quotations dropped 2.14% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.683 on April 25.

Secex data indicate that imports totaled 349.14 thousand tons up to the third week of April, against 454.52 thousand tons in April 2024. As for exports, the volume is at 77.61 thousand tons, against 362.62 thousand tons in the same period last year.

Trump EPA Approves Sales of High-Ethanol E15 for Summer

The Trump administration announced it is allowing nationwide sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline this summer, a move it said would would keep gasoline prices low and support US agriculture.

The move, via an emergency waiver issued by the Environmental Protection Agency Monday, temporarily exempts the 15% ethanol fuel blend from volatility requirements that effectively block sales from terminals starting May 1.

The Trump administration is issuing this waiver — with more to follow — using the same emergency power tapped by former President Joe Biden during the 2022, 2023 and 2024 summer driving seasons, over the objections of refiners and following weeks of lobbying by ethanol advocates. Temporary fuel waivers are more typically allowed to address fuel supply disruptions caused by infrastructure damage after natural disasters.

“This emergency action will provide families with relief at the pump by increasing fuel supply and ensuring a variety of gasoline fuel blends from which consumers can choose,” the EPA said in a statement. “More options at the pump helps protect consumers by reducing our reliance on imported fossil fuels and bolstering US energy independence, all while supporting American agriculture and manufacturing.”

E15 can be found at over 4,100 gas stations in 33 states and is legal for sale in every state except California, according to Growth Energy, a biofuel trade group which counts representatives of companies such as ethanol maker Poet LLC and Cargill Inc. on its board.

Corn futures slid 0.2% as of 10:37 a.m. in Chicago, having erased most of its earlier losses.

 Russia Set for Cold Snap at a Crucial Time for Wheat Crop

A swift shift to unusually cold temperatures in Russia, after a period of abnormal warmth, is casting further doubts about the size of the harvest in the world’s top wheat shipper.

Harvest forecasters already anticipate a smaller-than-usual crop in the season starting in July. This week’s cold snap for parts of the country’s wheat growing region could lead to patchy fields that look brown and burnt, with uneven growth and smaller kernels in the upcoming harvest.

Temperatures on Tuesday are forecast to drop to -1.2C in Orsk, -0.6C in Volgograd and 1C in Voronezh, data from Atmosphere G2 show. The cold snap may temporarily clear later this week, but “a further risk period should be monitored closely between Saturday 3rd to Tuesday 6th,” said Jack Wade, a meteorologist at Aura Commodities.

Even before the drop in temperatures, consultancy SovEcon was expecting Russia’s total wheat harvest to be the lowest since 2021.

“May weather is critical,” said Gabriel Razi, an analyst at Romanian grain market consultancy AgroBrane. Winter crops may face stress from lower temperatures, said Razi. A cold snap that delays spring sowing may push critical crop development to summer when yields face greater risk from high temperatures and dryness.

Bumper Russian harvests in recent years helped bolster world wheat supplies amid shortfalls by other top shippers and low prices have kept the country’s exports competitive.

Lower Russian production may crimp global supplies, with ending stock for the 2025-26 season already forecast to be the tightest since 2016, according to International Grain Council estimates earlier this month.

Indonesia, Japan Seek to Deepen Cooperation in Agriculture

The two nations plan to boost cooperation in the agriculture sector, especially in technology to mitigate the effects of climate change on food production, Indonesia’s Agriculture Minister Amran Sulaiman says after a meeting with Japanese officials in Jakarta.

• Sulaiman tells reporters after a meeting with Taku Eto, Japan’s minister of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, that he also invited investment in Indonesia’s dairy sector
• Indonesia promoted increasing palm oil exports to Japan, and the use of rice seeds able to withstand dry weather, swamp areas and saline soil
• Sulaiman declines to comment when asked whether the officials discussed the possibility of Indonesia exporting rice to Japan

CME Group to Announce New Black Sea Wheat Contract in May

CME Group Inc. plans to announce new Black Sea wheat futures next month after trading in a previous contract was suspended following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter.

The US’s largest derivative exchange is working to start futures tied to the price of wheat at Romanian and Bulgarian ports, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public yet. The contract will be cash settled and based on assessments published by Argus Media Group.

The move comes after interest in the bourse’s previous Black Sea contract — based on the price of Russian wheat — tumbled following the invasion of Ukraine. Romania and Bulgaria have stepped up exports since, with some traders moving Ukrainian grain to the two nations, which are part of the European Union.

A spokesperson for CME declined to comment.

Traders have sought alternative pricing for crops from the region, known as a breadbasket to the world. Spot prices in the Black Sea are closely watched as an indication of what countries including Egypt and Algeria are willing to pay for supplies.

CME has been talking to traders about the potential for a new contract since 2022, Bloomberg reported. New Black Sea wheat futures would add to CME’s grain and oilseed contract offerings. The bourse recently launched futures and options to rival a famous Minneapolis wheat contract and new European rapeseed oil futures, both this April.

 

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