Global Ag News for Mar 20.2025

TOP HEADLINES

USDA Reinstates July Cattle Survey, County Estimates for Crops

Agency is reinstating reports that were suspended about a year ago due to budget cuts, according to US Department of Agriculture statement Wednesday.

• July cattle inventory will be published July 25
• County estimates for corn, sorghum and soybeans are due May 6, with cotton on May 12, cattle on May 13, and rice and peanuts on May 23

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 3/4 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil down 0.31.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 5 in HRW, up 8 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4 3/4; Soybeans down 10 3/4; Soymeal down $7.60; Soyoil up 0.46.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 5 in SRW, up 18 in HRW, up 12 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/4; Soybeans down 20 1/2; Soymeal down $1.90; Soyoil down 2.07.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 1.6% in SRW, up 5.7% in HRW, up 2.5% in HRS; Corn is up 1.0%; Soybeans up 0.7%; Soymeal down 3.0%; Soyoil up 5.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 50 yuan; Soymeal down 8; Soyoil down 62; Palm oil down 6; Corn down 9 — Malaysian Palm is up 26.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 26 ringgit (+0.59%) at 4415.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 820 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 19 were: SRW Wheat up 3,542 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,513, Corn down 10,267, Soybeans up 13,228, Soymeal down 2,097, Soyoil up 2,207.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 19 MARCH 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Favorable rains were observed across the winter wheat areas of the U.S. Midwest and Southeast, with precipitation totals up to 30-50 mm above normal/7 days
• SOUTH AMERICA: The latest 10-day forecasts show an increasingly scattered and drier precipitation pattern over Central-West Brazil
• AFRICA: After the recent rains, weather in Western Africa cocoa regions will now become less active with widespread precipitation deficits
• AUSTRALIA: Heavy rainfall will persist over the northern region of Australia throughout the next 2 weeks, elevating flood risks in Queensland and Northern Territory

 

RAINS IN PART OF THE PAMPAS AND SOUTHERN BRAZIL MAY AFFECT HARVEST PROGRESS

What to Watch:

• The recent forecasts are trending wetter for the southern and western Pampas, increasing the risks for soybean/corn harvests in late March
• High rainfall expected in South Central regions of Brazil might not reach the 2nd corn areas of Mato Grosso

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers Thursday night-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Sunday. Outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday. Outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Midwest West: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Midwest East: Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday night-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, variable Saturday-Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

 

The player sheet for 3/19 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 500 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT PURCHASE UPDATE: Iran’s Government Trading Corporation (GTC) is believed to have purchased around 500,000 metric tons of wheat late last week, expected to be mainly sourced from Russia.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $424.77 a metric ton CIF liner out.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 tons of soft milling wheat.
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL delayed the deadline for submissions of price offers in international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons each of animal feed corn, feed barley and soymeal to March 17
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) sought to buy a total of 122,456 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that was to close late on March 19.
• SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 18,000 metric tons of crude sunflower oil.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending March 13.

• Corn est. range 650k – 1,300k tons, with avg of 1,100k
• Soybean est. range 250k – 800k tons, with avg of 638k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 2.9% to 26.575M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 27.271 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.105m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.059m

 

Brazil 2025 Soy Output Estimate Cut to 170.9m Tons: Abiove

Estimate for Brazil’s soybean production in 2025 is 0.5% lower than previous forecast of 171.7m tons, industry group Abiove said in a statement.

• Output is still 11% higher than 2024 crop
• Projected crushing this year maintained at 57.5m tons, up 3% from crushing last year
  • Crushing in January fell 6.5% Y/y to 3.28m tons due to harvest delay
• Estimates for soy meal and soy oil production kept at 44.1m tons and 11.5m tons, respectively
• Soy exports still seen at 106.1m tons
  • Soy ending stocks raised by 1.6% from prior estimate to 9.10m ton

 

Argentina corn production slightly up as reduced rainfall eases flood pressure

2024/25 ARGENTINA CORN PRODUCTION: 48.0 [45.2–50.9] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Argentina corn production is fractionally (<1%) raised to 48.0 [45.2–50.9] million tons, as excessive rains that have hampered early harvest efforts as well as late season crop dry-out process over the past several weeks fade away and much moderate weather conditions finally start to take place throughout the Pampas. In March’s WASDE report (released on 11 March), USDA placed Argentina corn production at 50 million tons, unchanged from its previous projection in February. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 49 and 44.5 million tons, respectively.

Most of the major producing regions in the eastern Pampas finally saw an arrival of dry weather last week (except some portions of northern Córdoba) after weeks of relentless torrential downpours that had adverse effects on maturing crops. The whole agricultural area of Buenos Aires, which has been impacted the most by the late season inundation, barely received any precipitation over the past 10 days (less than 10 mm in total, up to 30 mm below normal), providing a huge relief to the stressed plants. While it will likely take some time to alleviate the aftermath of the ill-timed excessive moisture, overall harvest progress moving forward should proceed as scheduled with little issues, as the dryness is expected to remain in place at least for the short-term (i.e. through early April). Corn harvest normally begins mid-March in Argentina, and given continued cool/dry conditions in the forecast over the next couple of weeks, Argentine farmers should be able to get their late season activities back on track with early harvest season in full swing.

 

Improving weather conditions bode well for Argentina soybean yield as rains fade away

2024/25 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 49.6 [47.5–51.8] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Argentina soybean production is slightly (<1%) increased to 49.6 [47.5–51.8] million tons, as excessive rains that have caused more harm than good during the crop’s late season developments/dry-out process over the past few weeks calm down and much moderate weather conditions finally start to take place throughout the Pampas. In March’s WASDE report (released on 11 March), USDA placed Argentina soy production at 49 million tons, unchanged from its previous projection in February. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 49.6 and 46.5 million tons, respectively.

Most of the major producing regions in the eastern Pampas finally saw an arrival of dry weather last week (except some portions of northern Córdoba) after weeks of relentless torrential downpours that had rather adverse effects on crops in late pod-fill or maturing. The whole agricultural area of Buenos Aires, which has been impacted the most by the late season inundation, barely received any precipitation over the past 10 days (less than 10 mm in total, up to 30 mm below normal), providing a huge relief to the stressed plants. While it will likely take some time to alleviate the aftermath of the ill-timed excessive moisture, overall harvest progress moving forward should proceed as scheduled with little issues, as the dryness is expected to remain in place at least for the short-term (i.e. through early April). Soybean harvest normally begins late March in Argentina, and given continued cool/dry conditions in the forecast over the next couple of weeks, Argentine farmers should be well prepared to start their late season activities, easing initial worries.

 

U.S. winter wheat crop ready to exit dormancy on schedule amid favorable weather

2025/26 U.S. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION: 36.4 [34.5–38.2] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Outlooks for 2025/26 U.S. winter wheat planted area and production remain unchanged at 33.4 million acres and 36.4 [34.5–38.2] million tons, respectively, with little spring freeze risks ahead amid favorable warm weather, though overall low soil moisture levels across core crop areas of the soft red winter (SRW) wheat belt remain a concern.

As the winter wheat crop begins to green up and moves into booting/heading stages in coming weeks, any abrupt changes in temperature will need to be monitored closely. Forecasted temperature anomalies for next week are expected to be generally warmer than normal across much of the hard red winter (HRW) wheat regions through the eastern SRW belt. Both EC/GFS model guidance indicates a major warm up during mid/late March, relieving spring freeze concerns at the moment. While short-term outlooks appear to be optimistic, uncertainty remains for the long term, with potential for a false spring and premature crop development. If a warm March was to be followed by sudden cold temperatures, spring freeze risk could be elevated due to crops being pulled out of dormancy earlier than expected. Any wheat reaching the jointing stage could be at risk if overnight temperatures were to drop below 24 °F for two hours or more. The result could be moderate to severe freeze damage as the growing point of the crop emerges from the soil exposing it to cold temperatures. While this particular risk appears to be low at the moment, continued monitoring should be warranted.

USDA’s latest monthly crop progress (05 March) and many local reports continue to discuss the risks of low soil moisture in some key areas of the SRW wheat belt, though over the past couple of weeks widespread rains have benefited the dry soils to some degree. Eastern parts of the Plains and the western half of the Upper Midwest are expected to continue to see some wet weather through the end of the month, but the rest of the SRW regions will likely remain dry, warranting attention.

 

China’s soybean imports from US jump 84% in first two months

China’s soybean imports from the United States jumped 84.1% in the first two months of 2025 compared with a year ago, but competitive pricing and a trade standoff with the U.S. is expected to boost purchases from Brazil in the months ahead.

As the world’s top buyer of soybeans, China brought in 9.13 million metric tons of the oilseed from the U.S. in January-February, up from 4.96 million tons in 2024.

“The rise in U.S. soybean imports is mainly due to the Trump effect, where concerns about higher tariffs led to a rush in purchasing,” Rosa Wang, analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI, said.

Brazil’s delayed planting also raised expectations of a late harvest, leading to more U.S. soybeans being purchased to fill the gap, Wang added.

Imports from Brazil in January-February fell 48.4% to 3.59 million metric tons from 6.96 million tons in 2024.

Total imports in the January-February period climbed 4.4% to 13.61 million metric tons, customs data showed earlier this month, as U.S. cargoes confirmed before U.S. President Donald Trump took office arrived, but traders are expecting a drop in March. CNC-SOY-IMP

Earlier this month, Beijing retaliated against new U.S. tariffs by raising duties on $21 billion worth of agricultural products, including soybeans, fuelling expectations that China will look to boost Brazilian supplies.

Brazil, the world’s largest soybean exporter, competes with the U.S. for sales to key markets like China.

The South American nation is currently in the midst of a bumper harvest and incoming shipments are expected to boost China’s second quarter imports to a recordhigh.

Brazil’s soybean harvest for the 2024/25 season reached 70% of the planted area as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, representing the strongest pace for this time of year in at least 14 years.

 

USDA attaché sees China 2025/26 soybean imports at 106 million tons

Following are selected highlights from a report released on Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Beijing:

“Post forecasts MY (marketing year) 2025/26 China soybean production at 19.8 million metric tons (MMT) and imports at 106 MMT. The production forecast is down slightly from MY 24/25 and the import forecast is up 2% year over year. Post projects a slowing rate of growth in soybean demand as Chinese consumers shift from pork to more feed-efficient protein sources like poultry and aquatic products. In recent weeks Beijing has placed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans and Canadian canola meal and oil. Post estimates MY 24/25 import demand for most oilseeds and products will fall below the average of recent years owing to strong domestic oilseed crop production and continued economic headwinds facing the economy.”

 

Proposed US port fees on China-built ships begin choking coal, agriculture exports

• Trump’s fees on China-linked ships disrupt coal exports, Xcoal CEO warns
• Agriculture exports face uncertainty due to proposed shipping fees, traders say
• Potential fees could increase costs for energy exports, American Petroleum Institute warns

President Donald Trump’s plan to revive U.S. shipbuilding using massive fees on China-linked ship visits to American ports is causing U.S. coal inventories to swell and stoking uncertainty in the embattled agriculture market, as exporters struggle to find ships to send goods abroad.

Trump is drafting an executive order that would rely on funding from a U.S. Trade Representative proposal to levy fines of up to $1.5 million on China-made ships or vessels from fleets that include ships made in China.

Those potential port fees have limited the availability of ships needed to move agriculture, energy, mining, construction and manufactured goods to international buyers, according to major U.S. exporters and transportation providers in interviews with Reuters, letters to U.S. officials, and comments ahead of USTR hearings next week.

Vessel owners have already refused to provide offers for future U.S. coal shipments due to the proposed USTR fees, Xcoal Energy & Resources CEO Ernie Thrasher said in a letter to U.S. Department of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dated March 12 and seen by Reuters.

Enacting and implementing those fees could cease exports of U.S. coal within 60 days, putting $130 billion worth of shipments at risk, Thrasher said. He said the fee structure could add up to 35% to the delivered cost of U.S. coal, making it uncompetitive on the global market.

“The loss of direct and indirect jobs would be catastrophic,” said Thrasher, who confirmed sending the letter and said he has not received a response.

The letter from Pennsylvania-based coal marketer Xcoal and comments from agriculture representatives showing tangible impacts from the proposed fees have not previously been reported.

Coal mines in West Virginia are also preparing to lay off miners as unsold coal inventories pile up, Chris Hamilton, CEO of the West Virginia Coal Association, told Reuters. He did not provide specifics.

The proposed fees could also make it harder for the U.S. to export other energy products like oil, liquefied natural gas, and refined fuels, the American Petroleum Institute, the powerful oil industry lobbying group, said in comments submitted to the USTR dated Mar. 10.

The USTR proposal also seeks to shift domestic exports to ships that are both flagged and built in the United States. The current fleet of U.S.-flagged cargo vessels numbers less than 200, and not all are U.S. built.

Very few maritime operators will be able to document that their annual share of U.S. exports meets the required 20% carried on U.S. built, U.S flagged vessels, shipping association BIMCO said in USTR comments dated March 17.

That could meaningfully curtail U.S. energy exports – “specifically liquid natural gas (LNG) as no US built, US flagged LNG carriers are in operation nor on order,” said BIMCO, which added that chemical exports could be severely affected as well.

U.S. farmers, who are already getting pummeled by retaliatory tariffs from China, Mexico and Canada, also are caught in the crossfire of the Chinese ship fee fight, the American Farm Bureau Federation said.

The inability to secure ocean freight transportation from May and beyond has restricted their ability to sell bulk U.S. agricultural products like corn, soybeans and wheat because exporters are unsure what the final cost would be, three U.S. grain export traders told Reuters.

The United States exported more than $64 billion in bulk crops, bulk animal feed and vegetable oils in 2024, according to U.S. Census Bureau Trade data. The North American Export Grain Association, which represents crop commodities exporters, will participate in next week’s hearing.

Bulk agricultural exporters could face an additional $372 million to $930 million in annual transportation costs from the fees, the Farm Bureau said. That would represent substantial margin loss in global markets where competitiveness is often determined by mere pennies per bushel.

U.S. agricultural exporters get an edge over global rivals by leveraging a cost-effective and efficient domestic transportation system for moving products to market, said Alexa Combelic, the American Soybean Association’s executive director of government affairs.

“When you add costs to that efficient system, it’s no longer efficient. We no longer have the competitive edge,” Combelic said.

 

Louis Dreyfus sticks to North America oilseed plans despite tariff storm

Louis Dreyfus Company is pushing ahead with plans to expand its oilseed processing in North America and expects Canadian vegetable oil to continue flowing to the United States despite tensions over tariffs, the global crop merchant’s CEO said on Wednesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s use of tariffs as a core economic and diplomatic tool has upended ties with trading partners including neighbours Canada and Mexico.

Washington’s tariff offensive has unsettled the U.S. agricultural sector, which relies heavily on North American trade, including large volumes of canola oil and fertiliser from Canada.

Uncertainty over U.S. biofuel policy, after rapid investment in renewable diesel using vegetable oil, has also clouded the outlook for agribusiness firms.

LDC is monitoring tariff discussions but so far has made “no change in timing, scale, or expectation” to its oilseed expansion plans in North America, CEO Michael Gelchie told Reuters.

U.S. import requirements in vegetable oil should also temper any tariff effects, he said.

“From our standpoint, the U.S. market tends to be in deficit in (vegetable) oil,” he said in an interview following LDC’s annual results. “So I suspect that flow will continue to find its way from Canada.”

More widely, LDC expects its worldwide geographical reach to help it withstand any trade disruptions linked to tariffs, he added.

Bunge, another global agricultural commodity firm, warned last month that its 2025 earnings could sink to their lowest level in six years, partly due to trade tensions.

LDC reported lower earnings for last year as, like its peers, it faced more subdued prices in staple grains.

But the group talked up a 17% rise in volumes handled, supported by investments in its supply chain and processing.

High use rates at its new oilseed processing facility in Nansha, southern China, supported the group’s optimism about Chinese demand, Gelchie said.

Asked about job cuts by other agribusiness groups to reduce costs, Gelchie said LDC had no such plans and was more likely to increase headcount as it integrated a string of new activities.

 

 

 

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