Global Ag News for Sept 19.24

TOP HEADLINES

Argentina raises biofuel prices for domestic market

Argentina on Wednesday raised domestic prices for biodiesel and bioethanol, both mandatory for blending with fossil fuels in the South American country, according to two decrees published in the official gazette.

The economy ministry’s energy department set the price of biodiesel for mandatory mixing with diesel at 984,865 Argentine pesos ($1,024.3) per metric ton, up from 965,554 pesos previously.

Another decree raised the sugarcane-based bioethanol price to 657.416 pesos per liter from 644.525 pesos, and corn-based bioethanol to 602.545 pesos from 590.73 pesos per liter.

The new prices will be effective “for operations to be carried out during September 2024 and until the publication of a new price that replaces it”, according to both publications.

Argentina, which is battling triple digit inflation and soaring poverty rates amid its worst economic crisis in decades, is a major global producer of biofuels, particularly biodiesel, and regularly raises prices for the domestic market.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 1/2 in SRW, down 6 1/4 in HRW, down 6 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans down 2 3/4; Soymeal down $0.10; Soyoil up 0.05.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 25 1/2 in SRW, down 27 3/4 in HRW, down 25 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal down $1.60; Soyoil up 1.43.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 17 3/4 in SRW, up 7 in HRW, up 10 in HRS; Corn is up 9 1/2; Soybeans up 11 1/4; Soymeal up $8.30; Soyoil down 1.65.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.4% in SRW, down 10.9% in HRW, down 15.6% in HRS; Corn is down 12.9%; Soybeans down 21.8%; Soymeal down 17.5%; Soyoil down 14.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans down 57 yuan; Soymeal down 25; Soyoil up 66; Palm oil up 180; Corn down 1 — Malaysian Palm is up 34.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 34 ringgit (+0.88%) at 3905.

There were changes in registrations (-29 Soyoil, -74 Soymeal). Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 353 Soyoil; 126 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 18 were: SRW Wheat up 2,640 contracts, HRW Wheat up 944, Corn up 16,502, Soybeans up 2,038, Soymeal up 1,552, Soyoil down 2,461.

 

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Thursday-Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

 

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

 

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday. Outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

 

Central/Southern Plains:  Isolated showers through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers south Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

 

Midwest:  West: Scattered showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday. East: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday, mostly west. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Wednesday, above to well above normal Thursday-Friday.

 

The player sheet for Sept. 18 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,750 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 125,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat and 100,000 tons of durum wheat.
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued an international tender to purchase up to 80,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil only.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 123,012 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Sept. 19.
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy about 450,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Sept. 12.

• Corn est. range 550k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 870k
• Soybean est. range 500k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,215k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.3% to 23.785M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.74 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.049m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.052m

 

Brazil farm export revenue slips into negative territory as soy tumbles

Brazil’s farm export revenues fell 9.5% in August compared with a year earlier, official data showed on Wednesday, leading this year’s total to slip into negative territory after a drop in shipments of soybean and its processed products. Agribusiness is a major driver of Brazil’s economy, accounting for 48.6% of its export revenues last month and 49.2% so far this year. The South American agricultural powerhouse is a top global supplier of soybean, corn, sugar, coffee and meat.

 

Ukraine 2024/25 corn exportable surplus seen falling to 15-17 mln T, producers say

Ukraine’s corn exportable surplus is likely to fall sharply in the new 2024/25 marketing year because of a significant drop in the harvest caused by poor weather, Ukraine’s leading agricultural producers union UAC said.

“We forecast a corn harvest of 21-22 million tons, of which about 5 million will be consumed on the domestic market,” UAC said in a statement late on Wednesday.

“The export potential of corn is estimated at 15-17 million tons, which is almost half as much,” the union said, adding that Ukraine had shipped abroad around 30 million tons of corn in 2023/24.

The UAC estimates are much lower than the latest official forecast which put the exports at up to 22 million tons.

The farm ministry sees the 2024 harvest at 25 million tons, significantly higher than the UAC outlook.

UAC said there were only 600,000 tons of corn in warehouses as of Sept. 1. Farmers have already started the corn harvest, threshing 1.1 million tons of the commodity from 255,300 hectares.

Producers say global markets show high demand for Ukrainian corn, especially in Europe, pushing prices up.

“Spain is literally sucking up Ukrainian corn: by the end of last week, the price rose to $222-224 per ton, while at the beginning of the week it started at $215. Portugal has also joined the purchases,” UAC noted.

The union says corn prices are expected to continue to rise in the second half of the season.

 

Brazil’s Foreign Trade Chamber Raises Quota For Wheat Imports Through The End Of The Year To Avoid Potential Shortages

BRAZIL’S FOREIGN TRADE CHAMBER RAISES QUOTA FOR WHEAT IMPORTS THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR TO AVOID POTENTIAL SHORTAGES

 

Indonesia’s palm oil exports to fall in 2024 on rising demand, lower output

Indonesia’s palm oil exports are expected to decline in 2024 due to increased domestic consumption because of a higher biodiesel blending mandate and a slight decrease in production, an industry official told Reuters on Thursday.

Lower output in the world’s biggest producer of the tropical oil would limit exports and support benchmark Malaysian prices.

The country’s exports could fall by 2 million metric tons from a year ago to 30.2 million tons in 2024, Fadhil Hasan, head of the trade and promotion division at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association said on the sidelines of the Globoil conference.

In the first half of the year, exports fell 7.6% from a year ago to 15.06 million tons, he said.

Production is likely to drop by 1 million tons to 53.8 million tons as last year’s dry weather is lowering yields, he said.

“There has been neither an improvement in productivity this year nor an expansion in area. We anticipate that this year will result in a reduction of production by 1 million tons,” Hasan said.

Indonesia increased the share of palm oil blended into biodiesel to 35% in 2023 and implemented it nationwide from Aug. 1, 2023.

This would lift palm oil consumption to a record 24.2 million tons in 2024 from 23.2 million tons last year, he said.

The country’s energy ministry said last month it plans to raise the blending to 40% in January 2025, in an effort to reduce fuel imports and emissions from fossil fuels.

The rising consumption is set to reduce surplus for exports, which helps Jakarta raise funds to implement its biodiesel programme, Hasan said.

“The government should carefully consider trends in production and exports before increasing the blending mandate. Exports generate revenue that supports the biodiesel program,” he said.

 

Indonesia Amends Palm Oil Levy Regulation to Increase Exports

Indonesia’s Finance Ministry issued new regulations to revise the palm oil export levies, in a bid to boost shipments of the tropical commodity from the world’s biggest grower.

The rules take effect on Saturday, September 21.

 

France Cuts Outlook for 2024-2025 Soft Wheat Exports: AgriMer

Soft-wheat exports from France in the 2024-25 season are estimated at 10.1m tons, down from a July estimate of 14.1m tons, crops office FranceAgriMer said in a report Wednesday.

• The drop comes largely from a decline in sales outside the EU bloc
• Stockpiles projection cut to 2.74m tons from 3.04m tons in July
• Average protein content of this year’s soft-wheat harvest in France is 11.4%, with three quarters of the harvest above 11% and 41% above 11.5%, said Maria Gras, deputy head of grains and sugar unit at FranceAgriMer
• Samples taken before crop entered silos, so quality may improve after cleaning: Gras

BARLEY

• Stockpile estimate cut to 1.45m tons from 1.74m tons in July
• Export outlook cut to 5.03m tons from 5.82m tons from July

CORN

• Stockpiles seen at 2.62m tons
• Exports forecast raised to 4.52m tons from estimates of 4.19m tons in 2023-2024

 

La Niña Seen as Wild Card for Grain Prices

Bumper crops of corn and soybeans in the U.S., along with wheat in Russia, are expected to keep world grains well supplied heading into 2025. But there is one big unknown that could wreak havoc on this expectation — La Niña. The odds of a La Niña climate system developing this winter are at roughly 70%, according to the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. How this unfolds is a wild card that could drastically alter the supply and demand situation worldwide, says Bill Weatherburn of Capital Economics in a note. “History… suggests that price surges of more than 50% year-over-year are only likely if production is negatively affected and other factors come into play,” he says. The firm forecasts grains to keep dropping for the rest of 2024 into 2025.

 

 

 

 

 

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