Grain Moving From Ukraine to EU
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 8 cents and near 14.70. SMN is near 449.2. BON is near 54.86. CN is down 3 cents and near 6.32. WN is down 9 cents and near 6.83. KWN is down 12 cents and near 8.37. MWN is down 3 cents and near 8.63. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
Soybean futures are lower. Failure of SN to trade over 15.00 triggered some long liquidation. Still, SN-SX remains strong at +171. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were all lower. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated at 200-400 mt. There has been no new US sales to China. Brazil farmer still selling. Brazil soybean export basis also falling. EU rapeseed prices are lower on good 2023 crop outlook. Energy prices are also lower on demand worries.
Corn futures are lower. Failure of CN to trade over 6.50 triggered some long liquidation. Old CBOT rule, you have to feed a bull market twice a day, but a bear market only once a month. Some selling linked to progress in transit corn from Ukraine to EU and some Black Sea vessels being inspected. There was no vessel inspections or moving yesterday. There are 27 waiting inbound and 43 outbound. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated at 600-900 mt. There has been no new US corn daily sales announced for last 3 days. New crop Brazil and Ukraine corn exports prices are lower on demand worries.
Wheat futures are lower. EU model suggest US south plains rains next week. Enough said for now. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated at 0-500 mt. Some selling linked to progress in transit grain from Ukraine to EU and some vessels being inspected. There was no vessel inspections or moving yesterday. EU supplies are high with 2023 crop off to good start. Russia Ag Minister suggested Russia 2023 wheat crop near 78 mmt due to lower yields vs some talk of 84 and 92 ly. KWN getting closer to 8.25 support. US north plains and west Canada still cool and wet. MWN-KWN found support near +10.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.