Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Grains Up As China Equity Market Up

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are higher. SF is up 11 cents and  near 14.48. SMZ is near 418.3. BOZ is near 76.20. CZ is up 3 cents and near 6.83. WZ is up 5 cents and near 8.46. KWZ is up 8 cents and near 9.49. MWZ is up 8 cents and near 9.51.

China and Hong Kong equity markets are sharply higher on social media talk that China could soon relax strict Covid policy. Positive news on audit of US listed stocks also helped China stocks. Rising tide lifts all boats with EU and US equities, Crude, grains and most commodity prices higher.  Dollar is lower.

US soybean exports commit is up 1 pct from ly versus USDA est of a 5 pct decline. Last weeks commit total was up 5 pct vs ly. Informa raised their US 2022 crop yield and are above USDA. Brazil soybean crop planting is done. There is needed rains forecasted for next week. Feb-Mar Brazil soybean export prices are 80-90 cents lower than US. Argentina is dry with soybean plantings usually starting mid Nov. Trade est US 2022 soybean crop at 4,315 mil bu vs USDA Oct 4,313 and 2022/23 carryout at 212 vs USDA 200.

US corn export commit remains down 53 pct vs last year. China bought 500 mt Dec Brazil corn and 500 mt Brazil March. Brazil has a record 50 mmt corn supply as of Oct 1. Argentina corn is 23 pct planted with crop rated only 6 pct G/E, all time low for this week and vs 82 ly. Trade est US 2022 corn crop at 13,887 mil bu vs USDA Oct 13,895 and 2022/23 carryout at 1,207 vs USDA 1,172. US ethanol and feeder corn basis still strong while river basis remains weak. Upper Midwest rains could help Miss river water levels.

Talk that Ukraine vessels can move in and out of Ukraine weighed on wheat prices. Still there is no confirmation from either Russia or Ukraine that the export deal will be extended after Nov 19. Some feel Turkey and Russia may be making a list of countries that need Russia grain and fertilizer exports. G20 meeting could be place for Putin to announce Russia stance on Ukraine grain exports. US HRW crop areas are dry. US PNW still snowing. Next week the north half of US could see a frost. Argentina is dry with crop lowered to 14 mmt vs USDA 17.5. Argentina wheat crop is rated 9 pct G/E vs 46 ly. Argentina will allow exports to roll forward 8.4 mmt of wheat sales. Exporters own only 3.1 mmt. Australia wheat harvest is delayed. More rain is in the forecast for next week. Trade est US 2022/23 wheat carryout at 578 vs USDA 576.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Get Started