Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SU is up 26 cents and near 14.89. SQ is near 16.43. SX is near 14.21. SMU is near 444.4. BOU is near 65.74. CU is up 14 cents and near 6.23. CZ is near 6.20. CZ23 is near 5.88. WU is up 17 cents and near 7.96. KWU is up 15 cents and near 8.64. MWU is up 17 cents and near 8.98.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower on recession concerns.
USDA surprised the corn market with weekly crop ratings down 3 pct to 58 pct G/E. There continues to be a widening spread between good crop outlook in north and east and below trend in KS and NE. 2 week weather still suggest dry and warm is NE, south and west IA, KS, N MO and WC IL. Trade est US corn yield at 175.9 vs USDA July 177.0. One of last crop watchers est US corn yield at 174.0. Trade est US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,512 vs USDA 1,519 and 2022/23 at 1,402 vs USDA 1,470. Next CU resistance is 6.32. A 10 nautical mile buffer zone was announced for Ukraine grain exports. First Ukraine corn cargo may now be going to Syria. Second S Korea. EU is now bidding for US corn.
USDA also surprised the soybean market with weekly crop ratings down 1 pct to 59 pct G/E. Like corn, there is a widening spread between good crop outlook in north and east and below trend in KS and NE. 2 week weather still suggest dry and warm is NE, south and west IA, KS, N MO and WC IL. Trade est US soybean yield at 51.1 vs USDA July 51.5. One of last crop watchers est US corn yield at 50.5. Trade est US 2021/22 soybean carryout at 226 vs USDA 215 and 2022/23 at 230 vs USDA 230. Next SU resistance is 14.97.
USDA also surprised the spring wheat market with weekly crop ratings down 6 pct to 64 pct G/E. 9 pct of the crop is harvested. Trade est US 2022/23 wheat carryout at 630 vs USDA 639. Next WU resistance is 8.45. A 10 nautical mile buffer zone was announced for Ukraine grain exports. There are still questions if Russia can ship 40 mmt of wheat, EU 35.5, Ukraine 10.0 and India 6.5.
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