ADMIS News
COCOA
July Cocoa was lower early Friday, falling to its lowest level since May 4 and continuing its decline off the May 11 highs. A report from Ivory Coast indicating their 2025/26 crop performed even better than anticipated added to pressure on the market, and there are lingering concerns about unsold supplies. The director Ivory Coast’s Coffee and Cocoa Council told Reuters this week that it expects the nation’s 2025/26 cocoa production to reach 2-2.1 million metric tons, up 10.5% from 2024/25. The upcoming El Nino event is on trader’ minds, especially if it diminishes rain early this summer, but demand is also a concern, and the rally to $4849 earlier this month, though well short of the 2024 high at $13,000, would still be considered historically high. World Weather Inc. expects daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next week in west Africa in general, with rainfall leaning light to moderate rain but leaving all areas impacted by rain multiple days during the period.
COFFEE
July Coffee was lower early Friday after reaching its highest level in a week on Thursday. Conab has forecast Brazil’s 2026 coffee harvest at 66.7 million bags, up 18% from 2025, with arabica production at 45.8 million (+28%) and robusta at 20.9 million (+0.8%). The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service is projecting Vietnam’s 2026/27 robusta production is forecast at 31.4 million bags, up from 30.5 million in 2025/26 and 28.0 million in 2024/25. World Weather Inc. said rain fell in northern and western Sul de Minas and neighboring areas of northeastern Sao Paulo, Brazil on Wednesday and early Thursday and that showers are expected periodically through the next seven days, with drier weather thereafter. The rain may disrupt some harvest activity, but it is not expected to cause any harm to the crops.
SUGAR
July Sugar was lower early Friday and was threatening to take out Monday’s low. The market has not been able to break out of it three week consolidation despite expectations for a global supply deficit for 2026/27 season off a switch to more ethanol production and away from sugar in Brail and the threat that El Nino could lower output in India and southeast Asia. The European Union is also expected to see lower production as well due to reduced beet planting. Earlier this week, Czarnikow projected a global sugar surplus of 1.4 million metric tons for 2026/27 season versus a forecast for a 262,000-ton deficit by the International Sugar Organization and a 3.17 million-ton deficit by Datagro.
COTTON
July Cotton was holding steady early Friday after another steep decline in Thursday that took the market to its lowest level since April 23. US cotton growing areas are starting to see some relief from their long drought, and this has helped spark a correction. World Weather Inc. said west Texas rainfall potentials are rising for the coming week as daily showers begin to pop up but much greater rain will still be needed especially in dryland production areas. Rains in the Delta and parts of the Carolinas will improve topsoil moisture and crop conditions, but some areas in the Delta are likely to become too wet by this time next week. Parts of South Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend will have opportunities for rain during the coming two weeks and that will improve crop conditions in dryland areas, although some of the moisture comes too late after weeks of little to no rain. The forecast is not ideal, but is shows a marked improvement over the dry conditions this spring.
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