June 19 Global Ag News Headlines
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 1 cent, HRW up 2; HRS Wheat down 2, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 3, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil up 55 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 18 cents; HRW down 17; HRS up 6; Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal down $4.00, and; Soyoil up 100 points. Crushing margins are up 3 cents at 93 cents; Oil share up 1% at 33%.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 24 yuan, down 17 yuan in Corn, down 5 in Soymeal, up 82 in Soyoil, and up 72 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 108 ringgit at 2,475 (basis September) at 2 1/2 month highs on stronger crude oil prices, low stocks seen in China and India.
U.S. Weather Forecast
▪ The U.S. Midwest will see rains spreading from the NW Midwest into the rest of the region for Friday, the weekend and Monday
▪ The 6 to 10 day saw some changes from the GFS now indicating rains to fall mainly north of I-80 in this time frame, rather than across all of the region
The largest precipitation change in this evening’s GFS model run was the decrease of rainfall from eastern Colorado through Kentucky and Ohio Jul. 1-3
The entire Hard Red Winter Wheat Region is likely to receive meaningful moisture between now and late Wednesday of next week with the possible exception of a few counties in the western part of the Texas Panhandle.
▪ The GFS is now indicating little in the way of rains to fall across the southern plains in the 6 to 10 day time frame
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 1,000 Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 soymeal, and; sold 1,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 44,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 290,000 Corn; net long 33,000 Soybeans; net short 52,000 lots of Soymeal, and; short 2,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 5,100 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,800; Corn down 1,000; Soybeans up 2,200 contracts; Soymeal down 130 lots, and; Soyoil down 1,000.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 106; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS 488.
TODAY—CATTLE ON FEED REPORT—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—
Tender Activity—Egypt bought 240,000t (120,000t Russian, 60,000t Romanian, 60,000t Ukrainian) wheat—Tunisia bought 176,000t optional-origin wheat
For the week ended June 11th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running unchanged from a year ago, shipments down 19% with the USDA forecasting a 2% decline on the year
—By class, HRW wheat sales are down 10%, shipments down 36%
—SRW sales 38% behind, shipments 65% behind
—HRS sales 24% ahead, shipments down 25%
For the week ended June 11th, U.S. Corn sales are running 14% behind a year ago, shipments 26% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline.
For the week ended June 11th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 7% behind a year ago, shipments 1% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year
—Soymeal sales 3% behind on the year, shipments down 1% with a 1% decrease forecasted
—Soyoil sales 52% ahead of a year ago, shipments 44% ahead with a 39% increase forecasted
Although no new large export purchases of US soybeans have been announced by the USDA in recent days, the Chinese appetite for US soybeans is expected to stay strong, and they are expected to fulfill their increased buying obligations under the Phase One trade deal, says USDA Under Secretary Ted McKinney.
President Donald Trump on Thursday renewed his threat to cut ties with China, a day after his top diplomats held talks with Beijing and his trade representative said he did not consider decoupling the U.S. and Chinese economies a viable option; the top U.S. diplomat for East Asia described U.S.-China relations as “tense” after their first high-level face-to-face diplomatic talks in months, although he said Beijing did recommit to the first part of a trade deal reached this year and that coming weeks would show if there had been progress
BRIEF-China Plans To Accelerate U.S. Farm Purchases After Hawaii Talks – Bloomberg – Reuters
Global grain prices will remain low as markets are well-supplied, the fundamental production outlook is generally positive, and food protection measures instituted in March-April continue to be eased or removed entirely, says Fitch Solutions; subdued U.S. domestic consumption, renewed U.S.-China tensions posing risks to U.S. exports and a newly passed U.S. government agriculture support package will also keep prices low; good growing weather ahead of the wheat harvests in 1H20 will see prices remain below March peaks and trade sideways to lower.
The United States generated more renewable fuel blending credits in May than in April, the Environmental Protection Agency said
—About 840 million ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in May, up from 645 million in April
—About 369 million biodiesel (D4) blending credits were generated last month, up from 357 million the month prior
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has received 52 new petitions for retroactive biofuel blending waivers that, if granted, would help bring oil refiners into compliance with a court ruling this year, EPA data showed; the new pending applications for blending exemptions are for compliance years 2011 through 2018; the waivers exempt oil refiners from U.S. laws that require they blend billions of gallons of biofuels into their fuel pool
POLL-U.S. May cattle marketings seen down 26.1% as virus hit meat plants – Reuters News
U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly Cattle on Feed report, which is due on Friday at 2 p.m. CDT
Saskatchewan crop report
—Seeding is virtually complete in Saskatchewan, with 99 per cent of the crop now planted; strong winds have continued throughout the province this week and the drying conditions have some producers concerned about moisture conditions
Wire story reports with or without China, world wheat stocks are set to reach a new high by mid-2021, though record demand should prevent supplies from becoming too burdensome; however, China is going on its eighth consecutive year of producing more wheat than it uses, further expanding already-massive stockpiles and nudging its share of global wheat supplies to a new record.
China will suffer a corn deficit and corresponding soaring prices this year due to the spread of the fall armyworm pest, according to industry contacts and academics, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says; however, the Chinese government estimates that corn production will decline only 2.5% due to the pest
Chinese researchers have constructed a high-quality genome map of diverse soybean varieties, which could help improve soybean breeding and cultivation.
Brazil’s total corn crop in the 2019/2020 cycle is estimated at 100.1 million tonnes, down from a record volume of 102.5 million tonnes in the prior season due to a drought in key producing states, according to agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult
—Agroconsult has also revised its estimate for Brazil’s second corn crop, which farmers are beginning to harvest now, to 72.9 million tonnes, a 4.5% drop from last season.
- BRAZIL 2019/2020 SECOND CORN CORP ESTIMATE REVISED TO 72.9 MILLION T VERSUS 71.7 MILLION T IN PRIOR FORECAST, SAYS AGROCONSULT
- BRAZIL 2019/2020 SECOND CORN YIELDS ESTIMATED AT 91.7 BAGS PER HECTARE VERSUS 101 BAGS IN 2018/2019
Wheat planting in Argentina this season is expected at 6.7 million hectares, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said, citing dryness in northern and western regions as its reason for trimming its previous 6.8 million hectare estimate; planting of 2020/21 wheat started last month; more than 58% of expected planting area has been sown so far; the Rosario grains exchange has warned that dryness might prompt it to cut its wheat sowing estimate as well; the Rosario exchange forecasts planting at 7 million hectares, setting the stage for a potential record 22 million ton crop.
Argentina’s farmers finished their soybean harvests in the past week, and output fell 10% from the 2018-2019 season to 49.8M metric tons, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s weekly report; a lack of rain during a critical stage of the plants’ development hit certain areas, leaving the national average for productivity 12.1% less than a year earlier, and 1.4% below the five-year average; the USDA forecasts Argentina will produce 53.5M metric tons of the oilseeds in the 2020-2021 growing season
Argentina farmers have objected to the government’s proposal to tie the interest rate of bonds issued in the country’s debt restructuring to the country’s agricultural exports; the proposal was included in the government’s most recent offer to the holders of about $65 billion in sovereign bonds as a sweetener to get a deal done; but the warrants, which would trigger payments whenever farm exports hit a certain threshold, were not enough to win over bondholders; the government on Wednesday called a time out to regroup in the final stretch of the restructuring talks
Showers and moderate temperatures in much of Europe so far this month should prevent further damage to wheat crops but they have come too late to avoid a much smaller harvest this summer after a wet autumn and parched spring, analysts said; the European Union’s crop monitoring service MARS on Monday again cut its monthly yield forecast for the EU’s soft wheat crop, projecting a 6.6% fall from last year’s level after plants suffered from a lack of moisture.
The condition of French soft wheat was stable in the week to June 15, with 56% of crops rated good or excellent as in the previous week, farm office FranceAgriMer said in a cereal report
Euronext wheat futures were little changed on Thursday, consolidating above a three-month low struck a day earlier, as traders weighed signs of an upturn in demand against improving prospects for northern hemisphere harvests; spot September milling wheat was unchanged on the day at 180.25 euros ($202.10) a ton; the contract had fallen to 178.25 euros on Wednesday for its lowest since March 18.
Indian export rice prices fell to their lowest in more than two months this week due to a weaker rupee and muted demand, while mounting supplies from an ongoing harvest weighed on Vietnamese rates.
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