Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for March 1

Written by Marc Ostwald, ADMISI’s Global Strategist & Chief Economist

  • Manufacturing PMIs and German & Italian CPI top data schedule; Korea Trade and swathe of mostly robust Australia indicators to digest; UK lending data and US Construction Spending ahead; plenty of Fed & ECB speakers; CERAweek and BMO Metals & Mining conferences

  • Germany/Italy CPI: NRW reading implies another upside miss in Germany;  energy and airfares seen pushing Italian CPI higher

  • Manufacturing PMIs: China readings disappoint, strength seen elsewhere above all US; price indices in focus


A very busy schedule awaits as the new month gets under way with Manufacturing PMIs very much dominating the data calendar, which also has Korea’s Trade data to digest, while ahead there are German and Italian CPI along with US Construction Spending. ECB and Fed speakers are again plentiful, while the week’s two major commodity conferences get under way – CERAweek and the BMO Metals and Mining Conference; while Zoom tops the run of US corporate earnings.

The German and Italian CPI data will be very closely watched, and as with the French and Spanish data on Friday, there may be some divergence with Italian HICP seen falling 0.4% m/m in m/m terms leaving the y/y rate unchanged at 0.7%, though rising energy prices and airfares may exercise rather more upward pressure than the consensus assumes. German HICP is expected to rise 0.5% m/m, with energy prices also likely to be a key driver, but this would still leave the y/y rate unchanged at 1.5% y/y after January’s surge on the back of tax rises and index compositional effects, but with another very sharp rise in North-Rhine Westphalia (0.8% m/m), the risks look to be to the upside of the consensus, and per se also for tomorrow’s Eurozone CPI.

Manufacturing PMIs are generally expected to remain robust across much of the world, though there will be disappointment at both the NBS and Caixin China PMIs turning out lower than expected on a combination of weaker export orders, slower production and weak labour demand. Elsewhere in Asia readings were largely robust, above all India, though both Thailand and Malaysia continued to see contraction. Forecasts for UK and Eurozone PMIs assume (as ever) no revision from robust ‘flash’ readings, but the focus will be mainly on the US Manufacturing ISM, which is forecast to be little changed at a very solid 58.6, despite expectations of a further small dip in Orders to 60.0 from 61.1. However the primary point of focus in the US (and elsewhere) will be Prices Paid, which is seen easing to 80.0 from a near 10 yr high of 82.1 in January, though the risks given the trend in energy and industrial commodity prices on the month, and continued supply chain disruptions in the chip sector look to be on the upside.

To view the full report and to sign up for daily market commentary please email admisi@admisi.com

The information within this publication has been compiled for general purposes only. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, ADM Investor Services International Limited (ADMISI) assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and will not update it. The views in this publication reflect solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of ADMISI or its affiliated institutions. This publication and information herein should not be considered investment advice nor an offer to sell or an invitation to invest in any products mentioned by ADMISI.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Get Started