Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
No news is bearish news in the Ag space overnight as the latest Trump/Xi summit failed to provide signs China would extend their purchases of US Ag goods beyond soybeans anytime soon. With US harvest still in its early stages, speculative traders turned sellers unwinding a portion of their record, or near record length in corn and the soybean complex heading into the weekend. A wet forecast for the WCB should provide underlying support for soybeans and meal. Energy prices are lower as hope for a diplomatic solution to the US/Iran war are on the rise. Wire services report an Iranian official stated they would consider allowing the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz in exchange for the US ending its naval blockade. Nov-26 WTI crude oil is down $2.15 per barrel at $92.45, RBOB futures are down $.11 per gallon while HO is off $.04. Dry across much of the central Midwest the past 24 hours as rain continues to impact the WCB and central plains. Moderate to heavy rain will continue across the plains and WCB into early next week, before stretching into the central Midwest by the middle of next week. Harvest in the west will be slow, while the C. and S. Midwest, along with the ECB, will have a good window through month-end. In South American above normal precipitation continues to impact the interior South of Brazil. Better prospects for rains in Mato Grosso and MGDS by early to middle of next week. Scattered rains for much of Argentina while above normal temperatures across SA. Above normal temperatures for Europe with scattered rains expected in France. The US $$ is sharply lower, wiping out yesterday’s gain. US stock indices are higher.
Corn:
Dec-26 futures are down $.11 ½ at $5.16, falling to its lowest level in a month. There is a little gap on the chart from late August between $5.09-$5.10 ¼. Yesterday’s export sales were weak while YTD commitments are down 29% vs. USDA forecast of down 4%. US Gulf FOB offers are well above Argentina while $.10-$.20 above Brazil into early 2027, something that will likely need to flip before US demand picks back up. For what its worth, USDA data does show Chinese stocks the tightest in a decade. I’d expect the Trump Admin will continue to press China to increase US Ag purchases. The BAGE reports 2026/27 corn plantings in Argentina advanced to 17% complete. Harvest in France has reached 45%, well above 13% YA and 5-year Ave. of 11%.
Soybeans:
Nov-26 beans are down $.16 at $13.01 ½, Oct-26 meal is down $6.00 at $370 while Oct-26 oil is down 78 points at 66.15. So far Nov-26 futures have held support above $13 with next support at this month’s low of $12.90 ¼. Soybean supplies in the WCB have dwindled in certain areas as wet conditions continue to delay harvest. Oct-26 meal inverse to Dec-26 reached a new high overnight at nearly $5 ton. Resistance for spot meal is at $394/ton, a 50% retracement from the 2022 high to the 2024 low. Look for the CFTC to print another record long position by MM’s in this afternoon’s COT update. Crush margins backed of $.05 to $2.39 ½ bu. Sinograin will auction off another 514k tons is soybean reserves from Govt. stocks next Monday. While yesterday’s export sales were well below expectations, YTD commitments are up 94% vs. the USDA forecast of up 11%. Chinese purchases likely close to 14 mmt. Spot beans will likely uncut $13 soon however I’d expect the growing El Nino threat to provide underlying support between $12.50-$12.75.
Wheat:
Prices have collapsed $.18-$.20 bu. this AM. CGO Dec-26 is down $.18 at $6.89 while KC is off $.20 at $7.47. 100-day MA support for Dec-26 CGO is at $6.75, while $7.27 for KC. Pressure for Russia to reopen Black Sea shipping is building as Ukraine Pres. Zelenskiy told leaders at the UN his country is ready for a truce based on proposals from Egypt, India and Turkey. The number of countries buying Russian wheat has been slashed. So far only 8 countries have bought wheat from Russia in Sept-26, down from 26 in Sept-25. In Aug-26, 16 countries bought Russian wheat vs. 43 in Aug-25. Heavy rains in the US plains will continue to help ease long term drought conditions. In the past week spring wheat areas in drought fell 4% to 52% while WW in drought increased 1% to 58%.
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