Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Risk on? Grains are higher. SF is up 2 cents and near 12.30. SMH is near 348.6. BOH is near 55.46. CH is up 5 cents and near 5.76. WH is up 11 cents and near 8.02. KWH is up 13 cents and near 8.32. MWZ is up 4 cents and near 10.24.
US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is lower. Pfizer said their vaccine should be good vs Omicron virus and could have a booster soon. OPEC meeting today.
Dalian soybean, soymeal and corn futures are higher. Palmoil and soyoil lower.
Weekly US corn export sales est at 600-1,250 mt, soybean 800-1,800 and wheat 250-600.
There was talk of China interest in a few US soybean cargoes. Brazil Nov exports double ly. Brazil domestic soybean prices down 70 cents from Nov high and $2.25 from summer highs.
Russia and Ukraine tension higher. Half of Ukraine army at Russia border,
UN estimates World food prices up in Nov 1 pct; Cereal up 3, Dairy up 1, Vegoil down 2. World meat prices down 1 pct. Pork down 5th straight month. Lower China imports negative.
US south plains dry. S Brazil and Argentina drying. E Australia rains. EU normal. Russia drying.
Matif rapeseed and Canada canola futures higher. US did not announce biofuel mandates. Matif corn higher. EU imports down stocks dropping. Ukraine corn works into SW and N EU. Some feel that that 5.60 CH may be a fundamental low if Omicron effect minimal. Same group feels wheat fundamentals not bearish and money flow weighed on futures.
Matif wheat futures higher on fact EU export pace too high. EU exports need to slow. Wheat could find new consumer buying at Tuesdays lows. Australia wet. Canada supplies lower. Russia wheat prices ill defined. December exports down due to low supply. No Jan sellers. KWH above 8.28 support. WH back above 8.00. MWH also holding 10.25 support.
US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,300 vs USDA 1,493, soybean 360-400 vs 340, wheat 583-640.
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