ADMIS News
COCOA
December Cocoa was higher early Friday after bouncing off a spike low on Thursday. Demand concerns after a lower sales report from Lindt & Spruengli this week and ideas that supplies remain ample given the global surplus for 2025/26 may have pressured the market, but it still can draw support from less-than-great growing conditions in West Africa, where rainfall has been on the light side. The Super El Nino, which is expected to peak in November and last into February, threatens to limit moisture this fall and winter as well, which can lower output as the season progresses.
Cacao Tree
COFFEE
December Coffee was higher early Friday and was approaching Wednesday’s three week high. After a 22% decline in prices from the August 25 peak on reports of strong exports out of Brazil, the market had gotten technically oversold and vulnerable to a rally. There are concerns about quality issues in some of the crop due to the heavy rains this past summer. The Brazilian exports have eased a very tight supply situation, as evidences by the increase in ICE certified arabica stocks after they had fallen to 26-year lows
COTTON
December Cotton was testing Thursday’s thee-month low early Friday and was dancing around the 200-day moving average as well. US crop conditions improved slightly last week, and it is too late in the season for the weather to change the production outlook. Heavy rains in Texas and other growing areas threaten to damage open bolls, , which adds additional concern for US export prospects. The nearby Dollar Index has reached its highest level since April 2025, which is not supportive of US exports, either. A decent export sale report this on Thursday did little to support the market. US cotton sales were down from the previous week’s stellar number but considerably better than the four weeks prior to that.
SUGAR
March Sugar was higher early Friday after Brazilian Agriculture Ministry data late Thursday verified expectations for lower center south sugar production for the first half of September due to heavy rains. The report put production at 2.12 million metric tons, down 41.6% from the same period last year. This number was close to expectations from an S&P Global poll of analysts, which had an average of 2.12 million tons. Cane crushing for the period totaled 30.16 million tons, down 34.2% from 2025 versus 29.8 million expected, and ethanol production totaled 1.72 billion liters, down 27.2% versus 1.89 billion expected. More rain-related delays are expected in the next couple of weeks.
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