Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Soybeans are higher. Corn is lower. Wheat is higher. US stocks near unchanged. US Dollar, Crude and Gold are higher. Short trading week.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.99. 10.30 is key SH resistance. Bears objective is 9.00. SMH-SMK spread did narrow into a -3.50 carry. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Trump announced he will add additional 10 pct tariff on China imported goods. USDA looks for China soybean imports near 109 mmt vs 112 last year. China suggested imports closer to 95-100 mmt. New tariffs could shift new China soybean buying to South America. South America weather remains favorable for crops. US soybean export inspections are up 12 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 8 pct.
CORN
CH is near 4.31. CH could be in a 4.20-4.40 range. US barge and rail freight continues to decline. Dalian corn was lower. Ukraine and Brazil 2025 export prices are below US. This could suggest a more shift in final exports away from US and more towards South America. Brazil farmer increased corn selling after recent rains. Brazil and Argentina will continue to see rains. US corn exports are up 38 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 1 pct. USDA announced 364 mt US corn to Mexico and 89 mt US 25/26 corn to Mexico. Trump announced he will add additional 25 pct tariff on Mexico imported goods until they stop imports of illegal drugs and illegal immigrants.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.59. KWH is near 5.61. MWH is near 6.03. WH resistance is near 5.75. WH support is near 5.50. Normal 2025 World wheat crops suggest selling WN near 6.00. Same for KWN. Trump announced he will add additional 25 pct tariff on Canada imported goods. US wheat exports are up 31 pct vs ly and USDA up 17 pct. USDA rated US winter wheat crop at 55 pct G/E and 48 last week and 50 last year. Black Sea wheat prices are dropping looking for demand. Matif wheat futures were down sharply due to slow export demand and improved Black Sea weather.
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