Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Month end. Quarter end. Grains are higher. SX is up 6 cents and near 14.17. SMZ is near 409.0. BOZ is near 63.77. CZ is up 4 cents and near 6.73. WZ is up 12 cents and near 9.08. KWZ is up 12 cents and near 9.78. MWZ is up 9 cents and near 9.75.
Report day. Could be some soybean futures buying in front of the report. Thursdays weekly soybean export sales were better than expected. Commit is 10 pct above last year. Brazil election this weekend. Start to 2023 Brazil soybean crop looks favorable. China PMI data was better than expected which helped Yuan rally. Argentina farmer increased soybean selling with today the last day of the Soy Peso deal. They may have sold 12-13 mmt during the deal.
Corn is higher despite lower weekly US ethanol production and disappointing weekly export sales. There remains concern about the Ukraine export corridor. There are reports that inbound vessels may stop going into Ukraine Nov 4. Strong US domestic basis suggest that today’s USDA estimate of US Sep 1 corn stocks could be below the average trade estimate. Argentina remains dry with only 6 pct of the corn crop planted vs 17 last year. US 2 week forecast is warm and dry and could help harvest. Low US navigation water levels could weigh on basis.
Wheat is higher. Russia annex of 4 Ukraine states raises questions as to will the west add Russian sanctions. Reports that Russia may stop foreign companies from buying grain from Russian farmers for export raises questions about Russia exports especially wheat. There is also talk that Russia may exclude foreign companies from owning port facilities. USDA estimate of Sep 1 US wheat stocks and US 2022 wheat crop should have little impact on futures but you never know for sure.
US Dollar is lower. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher.
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