Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOOK
New month. Same news. Grains are mixed. SH is unch and near 14.91. SMH is near 421.1. BOH is near 64.29. CH is up 1 cent and near 6.27. WH is up 7 cents near 7.68. KWH is up 5 cents and near 7.86. MWH is up 5 cents and near 9.12.
Financial markets are watching US Central Bank fight against inflation. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton ae higher.
Soybean futures traded higher on Monday on more talk of lower South America 2022 supplies which could increase demand for US soybean and soyoil. China is on holiday but there is talk of their increase interest for US soybeans. There is some history that they increase buying US soybean post their New Lunar holiday. Malaysian palmoil futures are lower but market continues to watch new Indonesia policy of reducing exports. This could increase demand for World soyoil and sunoil. One crop watcher lowered his estimate of the Brazil soybean crop to 130 mmt. Range of trade estimates is from 125-138 vs USDA 139. This suggest total South America soybean losses could be 500-900 mil bu.
Corn futures saw chart base selling. Lack of following through buying at contract highs triggered long liquidation. US Farmer continues to sell old crop inventory and are picking up new crop sales. There continues to be talk of lower US 2022 corn acres due to higher fertilizer and energy cost. This has helped rally CZ to new highs. There was also talk that steep wheat losses also triggered corn selling.
Wheat futures are trying to recover from Mondays steep selloff. Some blame the selloff in wheat futures due to forecast of moisture for US south plains, low Russia prices for export buying and reduced tension between Russia and Ukraine. Matif wheat futures traded sharply lower once US futures dropped. US wheat export pace remains slower than expected.
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