Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. World weather and global geopolitical tensions adds to markets uncertainty.
SOYBEANS
Overnight futures are lower on talk EU delay of deforestation rule and forecast of South America rains. SX is back below 10.50. China is closed for holiday. US Midwest 2 week forecast is warm and dry which should help harvest. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 1,000-1,600 mt vs 1,574 last week. Nearby soymeal futures are under pressure due to EU looking to delay the deforestation rule. Prospects of this rule has added demand for US soymeal exports. 12 month delay could shift demand back to South America.
CORN
Corn futures are lower. Corn futures are overbought. Corn is following wheat lower. Brazil is dry but rains are forecast in week 2. China is on holiday. US west Midwest is warm and dry which should help harvest. Weekly US ethanol production was up vs last week, Stocks are higher than last year. Margins have declined. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 600-1,000 mt vs 535 last week. 1st crop Brazil corn plantings are near 21 pct and behind average. Rains are needed and are forecasted in 2nd week forecast. US export prices are competitive vs Black Sea.
WHEAT
Wheat futures are lower. Wheat futures are overbought, Managed funds covered shorts on Tuesday. US south plains and Black Sea are dry. EU is wet and cool. WZ tested July high of 6.15. Still, WZ-WH widened out to -22. KC futures have finally moved over Chicago. Matif futures saw sharp gains as funds covered shorts following the talk Russia unions want slower exports and fact Russia wheat price responded higher. Weekly US wheat export sales could be low and near 150-400 mt vs 158 last week.
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