Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 7th day of partial shutdown. Trump threatens massive government layoffs. USDA and jobs data delayed. Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. USD is higher. Crude is unch and near $61. Gold is unch but tested 4,000. Goldman Sachs revised Gold price outlook to 4,900 from 4,300. US Midwest rains in N IL, M0, KY, TN and OH. C/N Brazil dry but rains are forecasted.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.19. Dalian is closed. FGIS released US export data. US soybean exports are down 15 pct vs ly and USDA down 1. Trade est US soybean crop at 4,271 mil bu and USDA Sep est of 4,301. USDA announced USDA October 9 report is on hold due to government shutdown. Trade est US carryout at 299 vs USDA Sep est of 300. Trade also est World soybean end stocks at 124.1 mmt vs USDA Sep est of 123.9. Trade est US soybean harvest near 39 pct. Brazil soybean planting is est near 8 pct.
CORN
CZ is near 4.22. CZ rallied on higher domestic basis. Dalian is closed. FGIS released US export data. US corn exports are up 56 pct vs ly and USDA up 5. Trade est US corn crop at 16,645 mil bu and USDA Sep est of 16,814. USDA announced USDA October 9 report is on hold due to government shutdown. Trade est US corn carryout at 2,231 mil bu vs USDA 2,110. Trade also est World corn end stocks near 283.6 mmt vs USDA Sep est of 281.4. Trade est US corn harvest near 31 pct. Rain is slowing Ukraine harvest. East EU harvest continue to see quality issues. Romania reports cases of Aflatoxin.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.13. WZ continues to find selling near 5.20. KWZ is near 4.95 and unable to trade over 5.00. MWZ is near 556 with momentum down. FGIS released export data. US wheat exports are up 18 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. Saudi Arabia bought 455 mt for Dec-Jan thought either Black Sea or Argentina. USDA announced USDA October 9 report is on hold due to government shutdown. Trade est US wheat carryout at 875 mil bu vs USDA Sep 844. Trade also est World wheat end stocks near 265.7 mmt vs USDA Sep est of 264.0. Trade est US winter wheat crop plantings near 50 pct.
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