Written Commentary
USDA QUARTERLY STOCKS/ACRES HIGHLIGHTS
Today’s USDA reports were neutral to supportive for both corn and soybeans while mostly neutral for wheat.
Wheat prices are sharply higher on reports that Russia may close the Don Canal, which leads to the Azov Sea, and the Kerch Strait following Ukrainian attack’s on Russian oil tankers in the Azov Sea this week. Wire services are reporting up to 20 mmt of wheat may be bottled up as a result. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat with the USDA projecting 47.5 mmt of exports for the 26/27 MY.
Corn:
- US 2025/26 stocks cut 125 mil. bu. to 2.020 bil., 50 mil. below expectations
- Feed usage rose 150 mil. while usage for ethanol down 25 mil.
- 2026 US production at 16.0 bil. bu. in line with expectations while down 1.021 bil. from YA
- Trendline yield held at 183 bpa, 2nd highest ever
- New crop demand rose 50 mil. bu. on higher exports
- 2026/27 ending stocks forecast at 1.790 bil. down 170 mil. bu. and 80 mil. below expectations
- 2026/27 global stocks cut 6 mmt to 275.3 mmt, vs. expectations of 279 mmt
- EU production cut 3.7 mmt to 57.5 mmt, imports up 3 mmt to 22.5
Soybeans
- US 2025/26 stocks cut 10 mil. bu. to 330 mil. on higher exports, 10 mil. below expectations
- 2026 US production at 4.475 bil. bu. 15 mil. above expectations
- Trendline yield held at a record 53 bpa
- New crop demand rose 30 mil. bu. on higher exports
- 2026/27 ending stocks forecast at .310 mil. unchanged from June and 20 mil. below expectations
- 2026/27 global stocks at 124.2 mmt were 1 mmt below expectations
- Chinese imports were raised 1 mmt for both 2025/26 and 2026/27 MY’s to 113 and 115 mmt respectively
Wheat
- US 2026 production lowered 7 mil. to 1.536 bil. bu. the lowest since 1970 however 10 mil. above expectations
- Ave. yield rose to 47.9 bpa while harvested acres were down 800k
- Winter wheat production at 990 mil. was down 40 mil. bu. and 10 mil. below expectations
- HRW production down 26 mil. to 471, SRW down 13 mil. to 287 mil
- Spring wheat production at 475 mil. was 20 mil. above expectations
- 2026/27 usage unchanged at 1.874 bil. with ending stocks at 722 mil., 10 mil. above expectations
- 2026/27 global stocks slipped 2.6 mmt to 273 mmt, in line with expectations
- Chinese imports were raised 1 mmt for both 2025/26 and 2026/27 MY’s to 113 and 115 mmt respectively
- EU production for now unchanged at 136 mmt
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