Written Commentary
USDA WASDE CROP PRODUCTION REPORT
I find today’s USDA data bullish for corn, neutral to supportive for soybeans despite the USDA finding addition acres for both.
Data for wheat was neutral however continued conflict in the Black Sea region has triggered sharp gains.
Corn:
- US 2025/26 stocks down 75 mil. to 1.945 bil., 55 mil. below expectations
- Old crop exports up 75 mil. to a record 3.4 bil.
- 2026 production up 13 mil. to 16.013 bil., nearly 80 mil. above expectations
- Harvested acres up 1.16 mil. to 88.592 mil. Ave. yield cut was cut 2.3 to 180.7 bpa
- New crop demand also up 75 mil. on higher exports
- 2026/27 stocks fell 137 mil. to 1.653 bil. roughly 75 below expectations
- 2026/27 global stocks little changed at 274.7 mmt, slightly above expectations
- EU Production cut 3.8 mmt partially offset by Brazil 25/26 production up 2 mmt
Beans:
- US 2025/26 stocks down 5 mil. to 325 mil. in line with expectations
- Old crop crush up 5 mil. to a record 2.655 bil.
- 2026 production up 44 mil. to 4.519 bil., nearly 50 mil. above expectations
- Harvested acres up 1.38 mil. to 85.781 mil. Ave. yield cut was cut .3 to 52.7 bpa
- New crop demand up 29 mil. bu. on higher crush
- 2026/27 stocks up 10 mil. to 320 mil., slightly above expectations
- 2026/27 global stocks little changed at 124.2 mmt, in line with expectations
- Chinese imports left unchanged
Wheat:
- 2026 All wheat production down 5 mil. to 1.531 bil. in line with expectations
- Winter wheat production unchanged at 990 mil. roughly 10 mil. above expectations
- WW Harvested acres were down 170k to 21.04 mil. Ave. yield rose .3 to 47 bpa
- HRW production down 8 to 463 mil., SRW unchanged at 287 mil. white up 8 to 240 mil.
- Spring wheat production down 1 to 474 mil.6 mil. above expectations
- Global stocks little changed at 273.25 mmt
- Russian/Ukraine exports cut only 2.5 mmt while Canada was up 1 mmt
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