Written Commentary
CORN
Dec-26 futures were up $.20 ¼ closing near session highs. Next resistance is the July high at $4.92. FSA data released 1 hour after the USDA WASDE and production reports showed prevent acres so far reported to the agency as of Aug. 1st were 1.355 mil. acres, possibly cutting into the USDA acreage estimates in future reports. I look for Dec-26 to challenge its May high of $5.06 ½ on expectations strong demand will tighten US stocks even further. The 2026/27 Ave. Farm price was raised only $.10 to $4.50 per bu., which appears too low given stocks/use at 10%.
- US 2025/26 stocks down 75 mil. to 1.945 bil., 55 mil. below expectations
- Old crop exports up 75 mil. to a record 3.4 bil.
- 2026 production up 13 mil. to 16.013 bil., nearly 80 mil. above expectations
- Harvested acres up 1.16 mil. to 88.592 mil. Ave. yield cut was cut 2.3 to 180.7 bpa
- New crop demand up 75 mil. on higher exports
- 2026/27 stocks fell 137 mil. to 1.653 bil. roughly 75 below expectations
- 2026/27 global stocks little changed at 274.7 mmt, slightly above expectations
- EU Production cut 3.8 mmt partially offset by Brazil 25/26 production up 2 mmt
SOYBEANS
Higher trade across the complex with beans up $.13-$.15, meal was up $3-$4 while oil 50-65 points higher. Nov-26 beans topped out just below $12. US 2026/27 stocks likely to come down further if China buys 25 mmt of US crop. FSA data showed US soybean prevent planted acres at just over 525k. The 2026/27 Ave. US Farm price was left at $11.40, which appears a touch high with stocks/use at 7.0%. Powerful storms and high winds left a trail of damage and heavy precipitation across N. IL and the ECB the past 24 hours. Scattered rains, some heavy, also noted across the Dakota’s. Heavy rains will continue to track from the WCB and across the central midwest and ECB. Hot and dry across the SW corn and soybean belt along with the S. plains and Delta region. China’s Sinograin sold 89% of the 516k mt of soybeans in today auction, its 3rd in recent weeks as they look to free up storage ahead of US arrivals. US Gulf FOB offers are $.30-$.35 bu. below Brazilian offers. China continues to rack up purchases ahead of Chinese leader Xi expected visit to Washington DC in 6 weeks. The USDA announced a flash sale of 244k mt (9 mil. bu.) to China. Conab is expected to raise their Brazilian production forecast .5 mmt to 181.1 mmt, just above the USDA’s 180 mmt.
- US 2025/26 stocks down 5 mil. to 325 mil. in line with expectations
- Old crop crush up 5 mil. to a record 2.655 bil.
- US meal exports were raised 200k tons for 25/26 and 700k for 26/27
- Bean oil exports were cut 225 mil. lbs. for 25/26 while usage for biofuel production was raised 150 mil. lbs,. with other domestic usage up 60 mil.
- 2026 production was raised 44 mil. to 4.519 bil., nearly 50 mil. above expectations
- Harvested acres up 1.38 mil. to 85.781 mil. Ave. yield cut was cut .3 to 52.7 bpa
- New crop demand up 29 mil. bu. on higher crush
- 2026/27 stocks up 10 mil. to 320 mil., slightly above expectations
- 2026/27 global stocks little changed at 124.2 mmt, in line with expectations
- Chinese imports left unchanged
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.14 to $.23 higher across the 3 classes with CGO and KC the upside leaders. Ukrainian drone strikes delivered significant damage to Russia’s Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea. This deep water port is home to at least 2 major grain terminals along with energy terminals and a naval base. It’s estimated 18 mmt of Russian grain was exported through Novo in 25/26 while 25 mmt moved through in the 24/25 MY. War headlines and logistical issues from the Black Sea region will continue to drive market volatility. So far global buyers have not chased alternative, more expensive sources, however their time may be running out.
- 2026 All wheat production down 5 mil. to 1.531 bil. in line with expectations
- Winter wheat production unchanged at 990 mil. roughly 10 mil. above expectations
- WW Harvested acres were down 170k to 21.04 mil. Ave. yield rose .3 to 47 bpa
- HRW production down 8 to 463 mil., SRW unchanged at 287 mil. white up 8 to 240 mil.
- Spring wheat production down 1 to 474 mil.6 mil. above expectations
- Global stocks little changed at 273.25 mmt
- Russian/Ukraine exports cut only 2.5 mmt while Canada was up 1 mmt
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