ADMIS News
COCOA
December Cocoa was lower early Tuesday but was holding above last Thursday’s lows. Dry conditions in Ivory Coast and parts of Ghana remain a concern for growers. Ivory Coast cocoa farmers told Reuters on Monday that below-average rainfall fell across most growing regions last week, raising concerns over a sharp drop in output in January and tighter supplies during the September-February main crop. World Weather Inc. says southern Ivory Coast and southwestern Ghana are drier than usual and need a boost in rainfall. Rain did fall in many areas from northern Ivory Coast through most of Ghana to Nigeria and parts of Cameroon Friday through Monday afternoon. Not much change is expected for the next ten days. Waves of rain will move from east to west across west-central Africa providing some needed moisture for cocoa development, but rain will likely stay lighter than usual in southern Ivory Coast.
red cocoa pod
COFFEE
December Coffee fell to its lowest level in two months early Tuesday but managed to bounce off that level. Brazilian government data on Friday showed the nation exported 206,617 metric tons (3.44 million bags) of green coffee in August, up 45% from 142,886 tons (2.38 million bags) for the same period last year, which more or less confirms ideas that Brazilian exports have picked up sharply after a slow start due to too much rain in June and early July. Uganda’s Ministry of Agriculture reported on Monday that their nation exported 846,376 bags in July, down 15.1% from 997,105 bags in July 2025. Uganda is Africa’s largest coffee exporter and the world’s third-largest robusta grower. World Weather Inc. reported scattered showers and thunderstorms in key coffee areas of Brazil Friday through Monday. Sufficient rain fell in some areas of Sul de Minas to induce new flowering. Frequent rain is expected over the next ten days from southern Sul de Minas into northern Parana and that should bring about additional flowering. Areas to the north will be mostly dry and warm. Indonesia continues to suffer from drought, and a tropical cyclone will form this week west of the Philippines that may impact parts of Vietnam. Southern India, east-central Africa, the Greater Antilles and portions of Colombia are drier than usual and need a boost in rainfall.
SUGAR
October Sugar was near unchanged early Tuesday as the market seemed content to consolidate its recent move its highest level in 28-months. A sharply lower beet crop in Europe has tightened the outlook for global supply. The German Sugar Industry Association forecast on Monday that their nation’s 2026/27 refined sugar production will fall 23.4% from 2025/26 to 3.386 million tons, due to a sharp cut in the beet sowing area and the summer drought and heatwave. German farmers cut sugar beet plantings by 13.9% to 300,069 hectares from 348,678 last season, and average yields are estimated to fall 13.2% to 71.3 metric tons per hectare from 82.1 last season. They are expected to deliver 21.398 million tons of beets to sugar factories for processing, down 25.2% from last season. However, sugar content is expected to increase because of the “prolonged sunshine” this year. Brazilian government data showed the nation exported 2.698 million metric tons of raw sugar in August, down from 3.721 million for the same period last year, as that nation’s output was slowed by heavy rains in June and July and a greater emphasis on ethanol. Pakistan’s state agency the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has issued a tender to sell and export 107,739 metric tons of white refined sugar, European traders said on Monday. El Nino continues to pose a significant threat to sugar output in India, which has already seen a drop in monsoon rainfall this year. Thailand could also experience drier than normal conditions, but they have yet to emerge. El Nino is expected to intensify into 2027, and it could be the strongest ever recorded. The Indian government has called a meeting with the secretaries of major sugarcane-producing states to discuss an early start to the sugarcane crushing season. The government is pushing for the season to begin on October 15, earlier than usual, in a bid to increase sugar availability and help contain rising sugar prices. However, sugar mills are reluctant to begin crushing early, as they fear that an early start could affect sugarcane recovery rates.
COTTON
December Cotton was near unchanged early Tuesday after falling to its lowest level since August 19 on Friday. A modest improvement in US crop conditions in last week’s weekly USDA crop progress report sparked a selloff from last Monday’s contract highs that was likely abetted by a fund selling. large net long this afternoon. The trade will be looking to this afternoon’s update, which may not show any improvement given the hot and dry conditions that have continued in Texas and the Delta. With the September USDA WASDE update on Friday, there may be a reluctance to push the market too far in any direction. World Weather Inc. says West Texas rain chances are poor for another week. Any rain that falls will lead to some new boll setting, but those bolls may not reach full maturity before the first frost of the season arrives. Last week’s drought monitor an area representing approximately 59% of US cotton production was experiencing drought as of September 1, up from 52% the previous week and 30% a year ago. This was the highest it had been since June 16. The US dollar was lower overnight after a modest jump on Friday off a strong jobs report
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