Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Mostly lower trade across the Ag space this AM as traders await updated harvest and crop condition data, delayed a day after yesterday’s Columbus/Indigenous Peoples Holiday. Energy prices are mostly lower while holding within yesterday’s ranges. Spot WTI crude oil is down $1.50 per barrel at $92.25, spot RBOB is down $.08 per gallon while HO is up $.01. Dry across much of the nation’s midsection the past 24 hours as the SE continues to dry out following heavy rain from Hurricane Isaias this past weekend. Later today moisture will start pulling from the SW plains bringing moderate to heavy rain across the central Midwest. Much of the N. Plains and SE will remain dry. Week 2 of the outlook continues to lean above normal temperatures and precipitation. Below normal temperatures for Argentina and S. Brazil over the next week. Dry for much of Argentina, scattered rains for WC Brazil while moderate shower activity across the interior South of Brazil. The US $$ is moderately lower after stretching out to an 18-month high yesterday. US stock indices are mixed.
Corn:
Dec-26 is steady at $4.83 while holding within yesterday’s range. Rally attempts since Friday’s USDA data have been capped at the 100-day MA at $4.84 ¾. Longer term support is at the August low at $4.57 ¼. Open interest plunged nearly 25k contracts yesterday. The function of the market now is to find a price level that stimulates demand. I look for corn harvest to come in 39% vs. the 5-year Ave. of 42%. Farmer selling has largely dried up since Friday’s. Since 1990 the USDA lowered corn yields in Aug. and Sept. only to raise them in Oct. 4 times, with this year being the 5th. Three times the final yield was above the October forecast, while 1 year the final yield was steady. AgRural reports Brazil’s 1st crop plantings have advanced to 44%, just below the YA pace of 45%.
Soybeans:
Nov-26 beans are $.05 ¼ lower at $12.82 ½, Dec-26 meal is down $6.70 at $362.00 while Dec-26 oil is up 50 points at 69.13, bumping up against its 100-day MA. Support for Nov-26 soybeans is at its 50-day MA at $12.69 ¾. Inside trade overnight for Dec-26 meal. Crush margins have backed off $.04 to $2.74 ½ after reaching a 3-month high yesterday. Open interest from yesterday’s trade was down 6.4k in soybeans while up 11.4k in meal and 4.4k in oil. Chinese purchases have slowed since late Sept-26 which we estimate at just over 15 mmt. Officials from COFCO are suggesting Chinese imports in Q4 of 2026 are expected to average near 9.5 mmt per month vs. 8.5 mmt per month in Q4 of 2025. Sinograin sold 210k tons of soybeans in today’s auction, roughly 40% of the volume offered. AgRural reports Brazilian plantings have reached 15% as of Oct. 8th, vs. 14% YA. I expect US harvest reached 47% as of Sunday vs. the historical average of 54%. Since 1990 the USDA lowered yields in October, only to raise them in September and October 5 times, with this year being the 6th. In the previous 5 years the final yield was above the October forecast 3 times, while below it twice.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.01-$.04 lower in 2-sided trade. CGO Dec-26 is down $.03 ½ at $6.68 ¾, Dec-26 KC is down $.02 ½ at $7.13 while Dec-26 MIAX is $.01 ¼ lower at $6.95. Open interest in CGO futures were up 1.5K while up 2.6k in KC. Baltic countries continue to urge the EU to block the movement of Russian grain through the region to access ports along the Baltic Sea. Russian drone strikes damaged a cargo terminal in the Ukraine port city of Mykolaiv. IKAR cut Russia’s 2026 wheat production forecast .5 mmt to 88 mmt, matching the USDA est., while lowering their export forecast 1.5 mmt to 42 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 40 mmt. Rabobank forecasts Australia’s 2026/27 wheat production at 31 mmt, down 13.3% YOY however in line with the USDA. Algeria is tendering for 50k mt of wheat with offers due today. Algerian typically buys significantly more than announced tender volume.
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