Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
Global Wheat Markets
A largely calm day on the global wheat markets in comparison to Friday’s post-WASDE fireworks. Wheat markets traded either side of Friday’s closing price and couldn’t particularly find a true direction.
Russian Crop and Export Outlook
IKAR lowered its forecast for Russia’s 2026 grain harvest to 137 million tonnes from 138 million and cut its export outlook to 52.8 million tonnes from 55 million, head Dmitry Rylko told Interfax. The wheat harvest estimate was cut to 88 million tonnes from 88.5 million, with export potential lowered to 42 million tonnes from 43.5 million. The corn harvest forecast was reduced to 16.2 million tonnes from 16.5 million, with export potential trimmed to 3.8 million tonnes from 4 million. Under a “stress scenario”, actual grain exports could be much lower, at around 35 million tonnes, Rylko said. He added that a two-phase harvest is likely, with part of the crop to be harvested in the spring.
Soybean Market Developments
CBOT soybean prices fell in today’s trading as harvest pressure mounted following favourable weather, as well as a lack of demand after no flash sales to China were reported following the end of “Golden Week” last Friday. With harvest progressing rapidly over the weekend in areas west of the Mississippi, there are plenty of available beans for crushers, and meal tightness should begin to ease.
US Corn Market Update
Corn managed to find some support today, reclaiming a small portion of Friday’s sharp losses following the report. Yield was estimated at 181.2 bushels per acre, above market estimates of 177.8. This prompted a limit-down response from traders on Friday.
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